Why Joe Biden’s China gaffe could make Australia a ‘nuclear target’

While experts slam the US president for “muddying the waters” over the Taiwan issue, former NSW premier Bob Carr warns the Australia’s current government not to back in Joe Biden’s rhetoric.

Former premier Bob Carr has warned that Australia could become a “nuclear target” if it followed an explicit commitment made by US President Joe Biden over the weekend to defend the island from Chinese attack.

“Joining the US would make Australia a nuclear target and flatten our export income — 40 per cent of all we sell is purchased by China,” Mr Carr said.

“The highest goal of Australian diplomacy is to actively avert war between the US and China.”

The comments of Mr Carr, who spent a year as Kevin Rudd’s foreign minister and has previously been criticised for what some have called pro-China stances, came after Mr Biden was criticised by experts for “muddying the waters” on America’s Taiwan policy and raising the risk that Australia could get drawn into a future conflict over the island.

Speaking in an interview with US television’s 60 Minutes Sunday, Mr Biden said that “yes,” America would defend Taiwan if it was subjected to an “unprecedented attack” by the People’s Republic of China, which has always claimed the island as its territory.

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) holds a missile fire drill in the Taiwan Strait. Picture: Eastern Theatre Command

Mr Biden’s statement was quickly walked back by US officials but it is believed to be the fourth time the president has publicly undercut Washington’s official “strategic ambiguity” on the question.

“Australia’s position depends on how any conflict over Taiwan starts,” said the Lowy Institute’s Senior Fellow for East Asia, Richard McGregor.

Taiwan's Southern armoured brigade demonstrates their combat skills during a live-fire army exercises in Pingtung county, southern Taiwan, on September 6, 2022. (Photo by Sam Yeh / AFP)

He said that if Mr Biden was trying to change American policy on Taiwan, “this was the wrong way to go about it.”

“The Chinese certainly won’t think (what Mr Biden said) was a gaffe — we don’t have strategic ambiguity, we have strategic confusion,” he said.

“If the US says we will fight to defend Taiwan at all costs then the costs of China’s military calculations go up, but unless the president gets his lines right he is muddying the waters”.

Mr McGregor added that he thought Mr Biden likely meant to say “unprovoked” rather than “unprecedented”.

US President Joe Biden, pictured with first lady Jill Biden, has said that “yes,” America would defend Taiwan if it was subjected to an “unprecedented attack” by China. Picture: Getty Images

While White House aides quickly walked back Mr Biden’s statement, multiple sources said that they believed the president was shifting the country’s approach.

One national security figure said “there is a joke in Washington, three gaffes make a policy,” referring to the president’s frequent verbal miscues.

Another said that China would be less likely to attack Taiwan if the US took a more aggressive position, because planners “would know they would also be facing off against nations like Japan and, yes, Australia.”

However Alex Bristow of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said there could be an advantage to Biden’s approach.

“With these remarks, Biden has rightly signalled ongoing US commitment to the Indo-Pacific just as world leaders are flooding to New York for UN meetings,” Mr Bristow said.

“Of course, White House officials will back brief that nothing has changed, and pundits will debate whether Biden misspoke — all this helps achieve the primary aim of confuddling Beijing, while also maintaining sufficient US room for manoeuvre that Taipei is not inadvertently encouraged to declare independence.”