Referendum losing ‘a point a month’ as doubts on Voice grow

The “yes” campaign for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament is losing support at a rate of one per cent per month, putting it on track for a narrow defeat, an independent polling analyst claims.

The “yes” campaign arguing in favour of an Aboriginal Voice to Parliament is bleeding support at a rate of one per cent per month and is on track to a narrow defeat, an eminent independent polling analyst has claimed.

The comments, by Tasmanian-based electoral analyst Kevin Bonham, came in the wake of Newspoll figures released Sunday night which found that less than half of eligible Australians would cast their vote in favour of changing the constitution to implement the Voice.

“Across multiple polls the trends is that on a two-answer, ‘yes’ or ‘no’ basis, support for the voice is going down at about a point a month,” said Dr Bonham, who said the overall average of polls showed “yes” support at around 55 per cent.

“However the Newspoll was the worst so far for the ‘yes’ campaign, and it is likely more accurate” than many other polls because it is the first to use the exact form of words Australians will be asked to vote on later this year.

If the trend continues and the referendum is held, as expected, in October, Dr Bonham said the referendum would have a hard time succeeding.

Yes to Indigenous Voice to Parliament is seen on a shirt worn by a union member after the Toowoomba Labour Day march, Saturday, April 29, 2023. Picture: Kevin Farmer

“People do get cold feet, and while it is trending to a very close vote there is also the history of polling which shows that the ‘no’ vote in referendums are often underestimated.”

According to Dr Bonham while there is a lot of “scaremongering” about changing the constitution, the challenge for pro-Voice campaigners is to “clearly convey a message that the Voice would not have an adverse impact on the country.”

Indigenous campaigner Dean Parkin, Cleveland. Picture: Liam Kidston

“As soon as you talk about changing the constitution, you increase hesitancy,” he said.

The Newspoll results came just days after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese gave the Lowitja O’Donoghue Oration in Adelaide, saying of the Voice, “let us not content ourselves with modest change.”

“No” campaigners seized on the comments, noting in an online ad that the prime minister’s rhetoric in the speech was very different to his claim that the Voice represented a “modest” request.

Dean Parkin, director of the Yes23 Campaign Alliance, said of the Newspoll results that he did not want to “sit back and commentate” opinion polls while admitting that “it’s understandable in some ways that there has been some tightening up in the numbers.”

“Our job is to do as we’ve always said we need to do – get out there and drive the conversation in the communities across the country,” he told Sky News Australia.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Fair Australia said, “This latest poll is just more evidence that the referendum is going to come down to the wire.”

“As Australians start to kick the tyres on the Voice they will be asking themselves why they should vote for a Constitutional change that will enshrine nothing but division, infighting and incoherence.”