Newspoll: Coalition ahead of Labor in NSW and Queensland

The results of the latest Newspoll shows the federal Coalition has pulled ahead of Labor for the first time in NSW, while increasing its lead in Queensland.

The political contest between the two major parties and the Greens has tightened, with the role of younger voters emerging as key.

An exclusive state-by-state Newspoll conducted by The Australian shows that the federal Coalition has pulled ahead of Labor for the first time in New South Wales and has increased its lead in Queensland

For the first time, the Coalition enjoys majority support among male voters. Peter Dutton has also pulled ahead of Anthony Albanese in Queensland as preferred prime minister.

This Newspoll consolidates a trend showing that if an election were held today, Labor would lose its parliamentary majority and force it into minority government with the independents.

Labor leads the Coalition on a reduced two-party-preferred vote of 51-49, but with two seats in NSW and possibly one in Queensland hanging in the balance. Labor still leads in Victoria and South Australia.

The poll shows Labor is losing support among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with its primary vote falling three points to 30 per cent.

The Coalition’s support among this younger group is also at 27 per cent, and so is the Greens’.

The almost evenly distributed contest between the three parties is being driven by concern in this demographic over the issues of climate change, housing and Palestinian statehood.

Voters aged 35 to 49, which is a key demographic, gave the Coalition a six-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred support, while Labor’s lead in this group dropped three points from 56-54 per cent to 53-47 per cent.

Peter Dutton at the LNP Liberal National Party 2024 Convention in South Brisbane, Sunday, July 7, 2024. Picture: Richard Walker

A notable shift was the increase in support for the Coalition in NSW. Its primary vote lifted two points to 40 per cent for the first time, and Labor’s rose one point to 33 per cent.

The Coalition now leads Labor on a 51-49 per cent basis.

It also increased its lead in Queensland, with a two-party-preferred split of 54-46 per cent in favour of the LNP, compared to 53-47 in the previous poll.

The Coalition also ­increased its primary vote in Victoria, up three points to 36 per cent to lead Labor, which is still at 33 per cent.

However, the ­Coalition suffered a drop in support in WA (from 39 per cent to 37 per cent), where it previously led Labor 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis. Labor remains on 34 per cent.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval ratings nationally remain stable at minus six compared to minus eight in the previous survey.

His approval in Victoria is up but stayed negative in Queensland at minus 16.

In his home state, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton leads Mr Albanese as the preferred prime minister for the first time.

The national average for Labor’s primary vote was 33 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the Coalition. This reflected a ­single-point increase for the Liberal/Nationals and an unchanged position for Labor.