Morrison paves way to May election with early March budget

The date of the federal budget in 2022 has been brought forward, which means we now have a big hint about the timing of the next federal election.

Australia is on track to have a prime minister finish a full term without being dumped by their own party for the first time in 14 years, as the Morrison Government paves the way for a May election.

The parliament sitting calendar for 2022 released on Monday revealed the federal government plans to bring forward the budget to March 29, which opens up the following six weeks for a campaign in the lead up to a May election date.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is on track to be the first Australian leader to stay in the top job for a full term since John Howard. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Regardless of when the election is held, provided Scott Morrison remains prime minister until then he would be the first person to survive in the top job from one election to the next since 2007.

Former prime minister John Howard was the last leader to complete a full term, with neither Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott or Malcolm Turnbull contesting a poll as Australia’s leader in back-to-back elections.

Former prime minister John Howard was the last Australian leader to hold the office for a full term before he lost the 2007 election. Picture: Jane Dempster

Mr Morrison is facing a difficult final sitting week for 2021, with rogue Liberal senators effectively holding the government’s agenda hostage over concerns about vaccine mandates.

Queensland Liberal Senator Gerard Rennick and South Australian Alex Antic have continued to threaten abstaining from substantive votes for key government bills on controversial issues like voter ID and religious discrimination unless Mr Morrison move to overturn state-imposed Covid-19 vaccine mandates.
With One Nation senators Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts also vowing to vote against all government bills for the same reason, the Coalition do not have the numbers in the senate to pass anything opposed by Labor and the crossbench.

This would potentially leave Mr Morrison with only three days in February next year to get bills before the May election deadline.

Given South Australia has a state election due on March 19 it is considered less likely the federal one would be held that month.

But federal Liberal sources on Monday said their South Australian state colleagues had been “seriously” canvassed about the potential impact of having a federal election in March.

It is possible to move the SA state election by up to 21 days if required.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has repeatedly claimed the opposition is ready for an election at any time. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Flavio Brancaleone

Australia’s electoral rules require a minimum of 33 days between when a federal election is called and the date it is held.

There must also be six weeks between the election of the senate and the start of the new senators’ terms on July 1, 2022, which means the next federal election must be held by May 21.

A Saturday either in March or mid-May is favoured as the optimal time to send Australians to the ballot box in order to avoid regular events and public holidays.

Much of April is ruled out by either Easter or Anzac Day, while most political parties consider the time between Christmas and Australia Day on January 26 as having limited campaign opportunities due to voters being focused on their holidays.

Setting out a plan to hold the federal budget in March is significant, because it is normally held in the first week in May.