Labor weighs up putting candidate in ‘unwinnable’ Cook after ScoMo resigned

Labor is still debating whether to run a candidate in Scott Morrison’s old seat of Cook and risk the political capital.

Scott Morrison has vacated his office and the Liberal Party has selected one of the Shire’s newest residents to run in his place, with experts saying a win is all-but sealed even if Labor does end up running a candidate in the Cook by-election.

Labor is still weighing up whether to defy the philosophy of “you should always be on the ballot”, but the government risks political capital if they run in one of the country’s safest Liberal seats.

Although he suffered an 8.17 per cent swing against him in primary votes in the 2022 election, Mr Morrison retained the seat for the party with a 12.4 per cent margin, making it next to impossible for Labor to win just yet.

Anthony Albanese this week said Labor hadn’t yet “made a final decision” on whether to contest the seat, with a call yet to be made by the NSW Labor branch.

“Cook is not a seat that it would be expected that we would win, but we’ll wait and see,” the Prime Minister said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week said the party ‘hadn’t made a final decision’ on whether to run in Cook. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Sources say the state branch hasn’t completely ruled out running a candidate and is yet to make a final decision.

But the high margin carries a financial and political risk the party needs to consider, and Labor is said to instead be hoping a “teal” independent would run.

No such candidate has yet emerged, and pollster Kos Samaras from Redbridge said a “teal” was unlikely to knock the Liberals out of Cook because the demographic lacked the “key traits” that had helped such candidates in 2022.

Mr Samaras said the conservative make-up of the seat meant it would be a few more election cycles – if ever – before Labor believed they were really in with a chance of winning Cook.

“There’s always the philosophy that you should always be on the ballot, but you can understand why they probably wouldn’t want to be there because it’s such a stable electorate for the Coalition,” he said.

“Scott Morrison got 55 per cent of the primary vote (in 2022), and Labor’s primary vote was very small.

“It will take years before this seat potentially becomes a problem for the Coalition, if it ever does.

“If Labor stands, and they have a swing against them, then it will build nerves off the back of nothing because they could stand and not spend a single cent and still have a narrative against them. I think there’s all downside, really.”

Simon Kennedy, who ran for Bennelong in 2022, is contesting Scott Morrison’s old seat of Cook in the upcoming by-election. Picture: Jason Edwards

The by-election date hasn’t yet been set, but the Liberals on Monday confirmed they had selected McKinsey partner Simon Kennedy to vie for Cook.

Mr Kennedy ran for the seat of Bennelong in 2022, narrowly losing to Labor’s Jerome Laxale. He moved to Woolooware, a suburb in Cook, on Friday but spent the week hitting the hustings with Mr Morrison’s support.

Despite the high margin, he said he wasn’t taking anything for granted.

“I haven’t been focused on (Labor potentially not running a candidate). I’m focused on listening to the electors,” he said.

“Whether they run a candidate or not, I’m out there, trying to understand their concerns and their problems.

“For me, it’s about how can I listen to them and then hold the Labor government to account on these issues?

“Whether Labor runs or not is almost immaterial to me because what I want to do is just listen to these people and then advocate for them.”

News the Liberals selected Mr Kennedy over a local candidate has been met with some backlash, but experts say the trend of rejecting parachute candidates like Kristina Keneally in Fowler and Roshena Campbell in Aston won’t necessarily play out here.

Kos Samaras said Cook was unwinnable for Labor and teal candidates alike. Picture NCA NewsWire / Aaron Francis

Mr Samaras said the Coalition clearly saw it as a “low risk” decision, but it could become a problem if a “credible alternative” candidate emerged.

“If a high-profile independent walks up, then we might be looking at something quite different,” he said.

Climate 200 – which backed the “teal” independents who knocked Liberals out of moderate Sydney and Melbourne seats last election – has been contacted for comment.

Election analyst Adrian Beaumont from The Conversation said preselecting a non-local “could have worked” in Labor’s favour but likely wouldn’t be enough to dent the Liberals’ margin.

“With the Liberals having won Cook 62.4 to 37.6 per cent at the last election, and Labor not polling great federally, it’s very unlikely the Liberal candidate would make it winnable for Labor,” he said.

Riddle me this.
When is your local member not your local member? #blowin

— Simon Earle (@SimonEarleLabor) March 5, 2024

Simon Earle, who ran as the Labor candidate in the 2022 election and describes himself in his X bio as “the bloke who runs for Labor in Very Safe Liberal seats”, has been outspoken on the social media platform about Mr Kennedy being a blow in but has not replied to any of the dozens of comments asking if he would contest the by-election.

He has been contacted for comment.

Labor has a history of running low-expectation candidates, having put forward then 20-year-old university student David Atkins in the 2016 election.

Dr Beaumont said elections were more about the party than the candidate, and Labor recognised the seats it didn’t stand a chance to win.

“Cook is a safe Liberal seat, so Labor isn’t likely to put its better candidates into an unwinnable seat,” he said.

Originally published as Labor weighs up putting candidate in ‘unwinnable’ Cook after ScoMo resigned