Revealed: The electorates that always get the federal election result right
These seats have almost always correctly predicted Australia’s election results. But this time around, experts say the equation is not as simple.
Federal Election
Don't miss out on the headlines from Federal Election. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Historic seats that have long determined the outcome of Australian elections will no longer be relevant as experts warn changing voter habits would see a recalibration of bellwether seats across the nation.
Bellwethers refer to electorates that repeatedly elect a candidate from the same party that forms government that term.
Pollsters are expecting new bellwether seats to emerge at this election as more Australians turn to minor parties and independents for their vote.
Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said Eden Monaro on the border of NSW and the ACT did not change hands at the last election and was not expected to this time around.
He said it’s part of a broader trend including electorates like Dobell, Banks and Lindsay in NSW which are unlikely to remain bellwether seats this election.
Those three seats have so far matched the government of the day five times.
“Bellwether doesn’t apply like it used to … the political landscape in this country is changing, it’s slower that the rest of the world but the process is underway,” Mr Samaras said.
“Past bellwethers were a manifestation of voting habits and class structures, that’s changing now.
“Just over 5.2 million people voted for a minor party or an independent.”
Mr Samaras said he expected neither major party to get to 76 seats to form a majority government “so an electorate that was once seen to go with the government of the day would be different now.”
Mr Samaras said Robertson in NSW’s central coast and Gilmore on the south coast would be the most likely bellwethers.
Robertson, held by Labor’s Gordon Reid, has gone the government’s way on seven occasions since 2004.
Former Liberal MP for the seat Lucy Wicks is looking to claim the electorate back from Labor but Liberals insiders fear the Coalition’s now dumped work-from-home ban for federal public servants could have done damage here.
Gilmore is not considered a bellwether seat but is expected to change hands with its 0.2 per cent margin and a high profile Liberal candidate informer NSW state minister Andrew Constance.
SEC Newgate chairman Brian Tyson agreed that Robertson and Gilmore would go with the government of the day and added Bennelong, held by Labor on a 0.04 per cent margin.
“The real thing to watch this time is far less of two parties going next to each other and more the up to 20 odd seats whether there is a three-cornered contest,” he said.
“Whether it’s Labor and Liberal with the Greens, Teals or an independent, that’s the big factor.
“There is no such thing as a uniform swing.”
Other long-running electorates to watch on Saturday include Petrie in Queensland, Page in NSW and Corangamite and Deakin in Victoria — all seats that predicted the election result six times since 2004.
Albo’s historic win: Critical seats that shaped the election
While Peter Dutton comes to terms with a devastating election loss, we’ve taken a deeper look at the key seats across the country that secured Anthony Albanese another term. SEE THE DATA.
The era of the two-party vote is over in Australia
This election has proven that the age of most punters voting either Labor or Liberal is over — and the ongoing effects of this won’t bode well for either party, writes John Rolfe.