Peter Dutton’s biggest challenge exposed by Newspoll
Voters fear the Coalition is “not ready” to govern after one-term in opposition – and women have the biggest doubts.
Federal Election
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It’s the surprising fact behind the headlines as Peter Dutton maintains his lead against Anthony Albanese, according to Newspoll.
Despite the fact he’s beating the Prime Minister 51:49 on a two party preferred basis, killing Labor on the primary vote and the bookies backing the Coalition for a win, Mr Dutton is still well short of the seats he needs to form government.
The latest Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian, suggests the Liberals are on track to pick up 7 seats based on a uniform swing of 3 per cent.
That’s a solid result for a first opposition leader but there’s a huge gap between the amount of seats he needs to win a government which is closer to 20 seats.
Of course, swings on election night are rarely uniform. But a swing of 3 per cent as suggested is not enough to form a majority government.
There’s nothing to stop the Liberal leader getting there by the time of the election in May, but the polls suggest he’s far from home and hosed and has some work to do to during the campaign.
But the results reaffirms the election likely to be a race between the two major parties over who could form a minority government with support of independents and minor parties.
And the latest Newspoll provides a giant clue on why that’s the case.
Voters doubt Coalition is ready to govern again
Newspoll warns that the majority of voters right now don’t believe the Coalition is ready to govern after a single term in opposition.
Around 45 per cent of voters believe that a Dutton-led Coalition is ready to govern against 55 per cent who do not believe they are ready.
There was also a significant gender divide with a majority of male voters saying they were confident that the Coalition was ready to govern, while a significant majority of female voters were not.
Among men, 51 per cent were confident compared with just 39 per cent of women.
Younger voters have the biggest doubts
Intriguingly, the doubts about a Dutton-led Coalition team being ready to govern were strongest among younger voters, but almost equally so among the critical 35 to 49-year-old demographic, which is regarded as critical to swinging election outcomes.
Among this group of voters, 61 per cent had little or no confidence in the Coalition’s readiness to govern, while the 18 to 34-year-old demographic was at 63 per cent.
Even the over 65s had some wobbles in their confidence in the Coalition’s ability to return to power.
A majority of voters aged between 50 and 64 years – 53 per cent – had big concerns over whether Peter Dutton’s team is ready.
Bad news for Labor
But the bad news for the Albanese Government is there’s no poll that says he is going to win a majority either.
Even if the Prime Minister only lost 7 seats, he would be forced into minority government and forced to negotiate with the independents to retain his job.
Labor’s primary vote remains woeful. Primary support for both major parties has lifted, with Labor on 32 per cent and the Coalition on 39 per cent.
This isn’t far off Labor’s result at the last election, but represents a swing to the Liberals of three percentage points.
The Greens remain on 12 per cent, with most of those preferences likely to flow Labor’s way despite the low primary vote for the ALP.
Speaking this morning on the Today Show, Mr Albanese said his focus remains on the floods, not the election that he announced on Friday would be delayed until April.
The Prime Minister had locked in April 12 as the election date, with campaign strategists booking advertising spends on Sunday night and sending campaign staff to HQ before Cyclone Alfred changed all that.
“I’m focused on helping Australians. Not focused on votes,’’ Mr Albanese said.
“And you know that I did get a bit frustrated with people continuing to (speculate) I think governments should serve their full term. You know, we’re governing and we’re governing in a way that’s completely put politics aside.
“We’re just about helping people because that’s what people expect. And that’s what they deserve, most importantly.”
Peter Dutton under the microscope
The latest poll follows Peter Dutton being exposed to scrutiny over his share-trading during the global financial crisis and his decision to leave Queensland for a quick trip to Sydney on Tuesday ahead of Cyclone Alfred to attend a fundraiser at billionaire Justin Hemmes’ mansion.
Perhaps more significantly, the latest Newspoll is the first since the Reserve Bank delivered a 0.25 percentage point cut to interest rates following its February board meeting.
It also follows Labor seeking to make the future of Medicare an election issue by rolling out an $8 billion plan to restore bulk bulling in many parts of Australia.
Newspoll shows he has suffered a fall in his approval rating with Mr Albanese gaining ground with voters on who they regard as their preferred prime minister.
Mr Albanese’s approval rating rose four points to 41 per cent, with disapproval falling five points to 53 per cent.
Mr Dutton suffered a two-point fall in approval to 39 per cent and a in dissatisfaction to 53 per cent.
It’s the first time Mr Albanese has had a better approval rating than the Opposition Leader since last year.
In the head-to-head contest between the two leaders, Mr Albanese has improved his position two points to 47 per cent, with Mr Dutton falling two points to 38 per cent.
The big question is whether or not Mr Albanese can build on these improvements during the campaign or if they are a blip and Labor starts to do backwards again between now and the May election.
The latest Newspoll was conducted by The Australian between March 3 and 7 with 1255 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.
Originally published as Peter Dutton’s biggest challenge exposed by Newspoll
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