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Laurie Oakes: The (swivel) eyes have it

BEWARE the swivel-eyed loons. That is a message former British prime pinister David Cameron got loud and clear yesterday. Its relevance to Australian politics won’t lost on Malcolm Turnbull.

BEWARE the swivel-eyed loons. That is a message the (now former) British Prime Minister David Cameron got loud and clear yesterday. And the relevance to Australian politics will not have been lost on Malcolm Turnbull.

As Britain prepares to exit the European Union, it is worth recalling the original push for a Brexit referendum came from rank and file members of the British Conservative Party, who Cameron and his senior Tory colleagues thought could be ignored.

They were regarded as right-wing nutters. In a 2012 profile, the Financial Times newspaper wrote of Cameron telling colleagues that “anyone who wants to talk to him about the EU is ‘swivel-eyed’.”

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull David Cameron, former British leader, during a trip to Turkey for the G20. Picture: Gary Ramage
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull David Cameron, former British leader, during a trip to Turkey for the G20. Picture: Gary Ramage

A storm erupted the following year when a senior Tory figure close to Cameron targeted branch members trying to force MPs into hardline positions on Europe and gay marriage.

“The associations are all mad, swivel-eyed loons,” he reportedly said. Now the loons are having the last laugh and Cameron is headed for the political scrapheap.

In the past, Turnbull would have had a Cameronesque view of many right-wing Liberal branch members — the sort who ooze resentment over the ousting of Tony Abbott.

He possibly still does, but he has learnt from his first unsuccessful stint as party leader not to show it.

The Australian prime minister — like other international leaders including President Barack Obama — had publicly urged the British to remain in Europe.

The way he is avoiding confrontation on climate change or gay marriage may disappoint former admirers, but it demonstrates a sensible wariness toward sections of the Liberal Party base where wildly rotating eyes are certainly not unknown.

Turnbull will feel for Cameron. He will also be concerned about the consequences, not only for Britain but for Australia as well, of the exit vote.

The Australian prime minister — like other international leaders including President Barack Obama — had publicly urged the British to remain in Europe.

But, in the short term at least, the British vote plays into Turnbull’s hands.

It will help him in next Saturday’s federal election.

Central to the Coalition campaign is the belief that what Australians want above all at the moment is stability.

Liberal research tells them that we are sick of seeing a change of prime minister every year, sick of political turmoil.

But now Britain’s shock decision provides an alarming new reason to fear instability. It guarantees a period of economic uncertainty and turmoil.

The Brexit boost for the Coalition comes at a crucial time. Liberal strategists were genuinely alarmed at the extent to which Labor’s Medicare scare campaign had gained traction.

In such circumstances, voters tend to turn to the incumbent government for reassurance.

Bill Shorten and the Labor Party will be all too aware of this.

“Now, more than ever, Australia needs a strong majority Coalition government,” Turnbull told a news conference, nailing it, as soon as the British result was clear.

The Brexit boost for the Coalition comes at a crucial time. Liberal strategists were genuinely alarmed at the extent to which Labor’s Medicare scare campaign had gained traction.

What worried them most was not the paid TV ads featuring Bob Hawke, effective though they were, nor Bill Shorten’s sweeping privatisation allegations — unencumbered by evidence that the government has any such plans.

“We just don’t know how potent the phone calls are,” a minister told me on Thursday.

“This is really rough stuff.”

Labor has become adept in recent campaigns at segmenting the electorate so that voters can be contacted according to age, gender, occupation and other factors.

When campaign workers phone elderly voters about the alleged threat to Medicare, for example, the message is tailored to their situation.

But suddenly, led by the swivel-eyed loons of Cameron’s worst nightmare, British voters have given their Australian counterparts something new to worry about.

There are different forms of the message for young female voters, young men, and so on. And the kinds of people who make the calls differ according to the group being targeted.

One message, recorded by a voter and played on radio by Melbourne talkback king Neil Mitchell, began: “I’m an oncology nurse.

“I care for people suffering from cancer. The earlier cancer is detected, the better chance a patient has to survive.

“But if the Liberals privatise Medicare, people may not be able to afford to see their GP when they need to.”

Rough stuff or not, it is certainly sophisticated.

Liberal sources say Labor is well ahead of them in this kind of campaigning.

But suddenly, led by the swivel-eyed loons of Cameron’s worst nightmare, British voters have given their Australian counterparts something new to worry about.

The Coalition will use it to launch a scare campaign of its own in the final crucial week before the election. Brexit puts the economy right back at centre stage — which is where Turnbull wants it.


Laurie Oakes is the Nine Network political editor.

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/laurie-oakes-the-swivel-eyes-have-it/news-story/da66e50fdd0f0ef62555f9498d0002c6