Federal Election 2022: Tom Connell is the new election guru who will be calling the seats

Tom Connell has been reporting on politics for a decade, and reckons this election is shaping up as the hardest to predict.

He may look younger than his 38 years, but don’t make the mistake of underestimating Tom Connell.

With a decade of experience as a political reporter, the Sky News Chief Election Analyst has an astonishing recall of the issues, seats and personalities that shape Australian politics, and his polite manner belies a steely determination to hold waffling politicians to account.

This federal election will be the fourth Connell has covered for Sky, and he said it was already shaping up as the hardest to predict.

“There is a palpable sense with this one that nobody is taking anything for granted,” he said. “We’re rightfully wary of applying a ‘strong favourite’ tag, given what’s happened in the past.”

The 2016 poll was “supposed to be a thumping Coalition victory for Malcolm Turnbull,” while the 2019 vote was “supposed to be something akin to a coronation of Bill Shorten” – and neither panned out as expected, he said.

Tom Connell Sky News Chief Election Analyst. Picture: Sky News

Asked about the electorates he will be keeping a close eye on during the campaign, Connell name-checked Reid (NSW) and Flynn (Qld) – two electorates held by the Coalition being eyed off by the ALP. Both seats were likely to reflect the strength and direction of a swing in their respective states, he said.

“North Sydney is also really interesting. It’s the biggest chance to fall to Climate 200, but Labor is also in there with a chance too,” Connell said.

The Climate 200 independents were larger, better funded and more organised than the small group of candidates who stood against high-profile government MPs in 2019, he said, and their was a sense that if they couldn’t win a campaign this time around, when could they?

Connell will be fronting his usual NewsDay slot on Sky during the campaign, with screen time of anywhere between one and three hours per weekday.

“We’ll be showing where the election will be won, bringing to our viewers emerging trends, what we’re hearing behind the scenes from the parties, and where they’re trying to win voters,” he said. “Campaigns evolve. The seats that are relevant at the start do tend to shift.”

While the day-to-day content is sure to have its shares of twists, turns and dramas, Connell said he always looks forward to the election night broadcast itself.

“It’s the one night when you always hear politicians talking honestly,” he said. “It’s when everything comes out in the open. You can’t hide from the numbers.”

Got a story tip? Email us at [e-mail]

Know some goss or seen something in your electorate? Contact us at [e-mail]