Federal Election 2022: Peta Credlin’s Sky doco explores how the campaign battle will unfold

Because the policy difference between Coalition and Labor is so slight, this federal fight will be a contest of character instead. And for Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese that battle is about to get dirty.

Australians have been casting votes for one hundred and eighty-two years.

In October 1840, a ballot was held to elect the first Adelaide City Council. Eligibility was strict. Only property-holding men could vote, and they had to be resident in South Australia for a minimum of six months. A former colonial official, James Fisher, was elected Mayor, with two hundred and fifty-five votes. Fisher bested a field of forty-two candidates to win that election – quite an achievement.

Plainly, in Adelaide in 1840, there wasn’t just an eagerness to exercise newly won democratic rights by voting, but an enthusiasm to shape democracy by running for office.

A reminder today too in the days of the factional fix and candidates ‘parachuted in’ that we’re always better served by a big field of aspirants vying for our vote.

Australians don’t give themselves enough credit for building the world’s best democracy. Victoria was the first place in the world to have secret ballots. South Australia was the first place in the world to allow women to run for parliament. And Queensland had the world’s first democratically elected, constitutional empowered workers’ government. Unlike other countries, we’ve never fought a civil war over the right to cast a ballot.

Peta Credlin’s new doco explores political campaigns and how they work. Picture: Supplied

It’s important we honour that achievement by exercising our democratic rights in an informed and intelligent way. That’s what my new documentary, The Campaign Uncovered, is all about. It’s about taking Australians inside our democracy – to understand campaigns and how they’re run, and to get to know the big players and what makes them tick.

I speak to President George W. Bush’s former strategist, Karl Rove, about the way technology has transformed elections and how political parties use (and abuse) platforms like Facebook and Instagram to influence voters like never before. Senator Pauline Hanson tells me how she connects with everyday people and grants me special, behind-the-scenes access to her work in Canberra. Another conversation you’ll want to hear is with Special Minister of State, Ben Morton, about the army of Climate 200 Independents – like Allegra Spender, challenging Dave Sharma in Sydney’s inner east: and Monique Ryan, taking on the Treasurer in Victoria’s bluest of blue-ribbon seats.

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese who is vying for the top job. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

Every election has an echo of previous contests but it’s a fatal mistake to think you can re-run your last campaign’s strategy and win. Every election is different, and this time it’s stark. For one thing, it’s going to be the least policy-driven election in a long time: with the Morrison government spending massively to ease cost of living pressures and announcing big new security measures in a more dangerous world than we’ve known for generations. Add in too, Australia’s economic recovery post-pandemic and this election matters.

But despite his past as a left-wing warrior, the Albanese opposition is playing the small target game (and getting away with it) by “me-too-ing” everything, from nuclear submarines to tax cuts. Instead of a contest over policy, it will be contest over character; with Labor’s attacks on the PM as untrustworthy and incompetent biting, and the Liberals insisting that the opposition leader is running under false pretences, pretending to be a moderate only to show his true colours if he wins. Precisely because the stated differences between the big parties have rarely been so slight, the personal attacks will be on maximum volume.

But it’s not just Labor that’s after the Morrison Government; they’re fighting a war on two fronts. On the Right, there’s One Nation and the Liberal Democrats, both accusing the Morrison government of being Labor-lite, that’s likely to erode the Coalition’s vote in outer-metropolitan and regional seats. And on the Left (yes Left, don’t let their “independence” tag fool you) is the so-called “Voices”, or Climate 200 mob, pretending to be progressive Liberals, targeting well-heeled seats like Wentworth in Sydney, Kooyong in Melbourne, and Curtin in Perth. Not to be underestimated too is Clive Palmer’s vast advertising spend – over $80 million last election and likely to be at least as much this time – that is now mainly targeting the Coalition. Have a look at all the billboards he’s already bought. Palmer is unlikely to win any seats – certainly none in the lower house – but his preferences will almost certainly hurt the Coalition in its heartland.

Despite being the superior campaigner, with an unfavourable redistribution, retirements in key seats, popular state Labor premiers taking pot shots from the sidelines, and the general wear-and-tear associated with a government seeking a fourth term, this election will be much harder for Scott Morrison to win than the 2019 “miracle” but only the crazy-brave would count him out.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a challenge ahead of himself. Picture: Michael Klein

Like you, I abhor hypocrisy. Especially people claiming to be disaffected Liberals who are really rich greens who can afford to virtue-signal at the expense of struggling families. Warringah’s Zali Steggall is the prime example: demanding more climate action from everyone else while taking two years to eventually give up her big SUV for a token electric vehicle; and denouncing the coal industry while accepting donations from coal investors. The Campaign Uncovered will delve into the Climate 200 Independents and their wealthy backers, like woke financier Simon Holmes a Court, and expose the numerous links between these so-called independents and long-term Labor Party and GetUp operatives.

Many Australians see elections as a two-horse race between the Coalition and Labor, and a head-to-head contest between leaders – in this case between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese. This time, it’s not that simple. With the bookies calling a hung Parliament a potential outcome, these Climate 200 “Independents” could well be in a position to decide which party forms government and even who is prime minister.

On Thursday, Steggall said she “could” support the Coalition in the event of a hung parliament – but only if Scott Morrison were removed as PM. That’s why it’s so important Australians understand who they are, what they believe in, and where their donations are coming from because they think they’ll call the shots, not you.

The Campaign Uncovered – A Peta Credlin Investigation premieres on Sky News, Tuesday, April 5 at 8pm AEST. Watch on Foxtel and Sky News Regional or stream on Flash.

ELECTION BATTLES TO WATCH

*Factional brawling inside the New South Wales Liberal Party means they’re yet to select candidates in a number of winnable seats, including Hughes, Warringah and Parramatta. This is more bad news for the PM.

*Labor has sought to capitalise on division inside the New South Wales Liberal Party, by sending extra resources to the state. Watch for the ALP to run hard in seats like Reid and Bennelong.

*The cost of living will be a key election issue. Expect to hear regularly from Anthony Albanese about the soaring price of petrol and groceries – and the likelihood of interest rate hikes later this year.

*The Coalition and Labor will use Facebook and Instagram like never before to get their message out. Your feeds will be bombarded from Day One!

*Keep an eye on the Labor Premiers in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and now South Australia. They’ll be a thorn in the PM’s side.

*The British PM, Harold Macmillan, was once asked what the greatest challenge for a statesman was. His response: “events, dear boy, events”. Don’t discount the possibility of another global crisis turning the campaign on its head.

*This election will not be based on a contest of policies, but a character fight between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Opposition Leader.

*There will be a record number of Independents running in the federal election. The prospect of a hung Parliament is very real which could leave the Independents in the driver’s seat.

*The Australian Electoral Commission shows that Climate 200 donated nearly $450- thousand dollars to 12 Independent candidates at the last election. This time around it’s estimated that its war chest could be in the millions.

*They call themselves “voices of” – an alliance of Independent candidates who are set to play a significant role in the coming campaign. They say they’re not a political party, but these independent voices all sing from the same hymn book: climate action, political integrity and gender equality. The campaign colours are similar, the media lines too. And they all have another thing that binds them together – a common enemy: incumbent Liberal MPs.