Federal Election 2019: Poll shows La Trobe on knife’s edge

With just two days before election day, an exclusive new poll reveals the Liberal seat of La Trobe in Melbourne’s outer east is neck and neck. This is what it means for the election result.

The key Victorian seat of La Trobe is on a knife’s edge with two days to go before the election.

An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll shows the seat, in Melbourne’s outer-eastern suburbs, is locked at 50-50 per cent two-party-preferred.

The seat, which Liberal MP Jason Wood holds on a 3.2 per cent margin, has been heavily targeted by Labor — around the party’s candidate Simon Curtis — during the 2019 Federal Election campaign.

Primary support for the Liberals has dropped just one point to 43 per cent, but Labor’s support has risen seven points to 39 per cent, according to the poll.

Support for the Greens sits at 7 per cent, United Australia Party is on 3 per cent and all other candidates are on 8 per cent.

Unlike some other Victorian electorates polled this week, climate change was not as big of an issue for La Trobe voters with only 19 per cent choosing it as the most important factor impacting their vote.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and La Trobe MP Jason Wood. Picture: AAP

Labor candidate Simon Curtis and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten visit Casey Hospital. Picture: Kym Smith

Of those surveyed, 41 per cent nominated cost of living as the biggest issue, health care was on 13 per cent and tax cuts on 8 per cent.

The survey of 541 La Trobe voters was conducted on Monday and Tuesday night this week.

The electorate takes in the suburbs of Berwick, Beaconsfield and as well as Gembrook and parts of the Dandenong Ranges.

Mr Wood first won the seat in 2004 but lost it for one term in 2010 when Victoria help up strongly for then PM Julia Gillard.

He was able to regain it in 2013 when the Coalition was swept to power under Tony Abbott.

WHAT THE LA TROBE POLLING MEANS

Analysis by Herald Sun National Political Editor, James Campbell

In theory, last year’s redistribution was supposed to make La Trobe safer for the Liberal Party.

In 2016 Jason Wood ended up with 51.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, which according to the ABC election guru Antony Green was pumped up to 53.2 per cent by the boundary changes.

Wood’s problem is that he gained the fast-developing area of Pakenham – an outer suburban area that Labor in Victoria has made its own.

At the last state election Labor got a 10.5 per cent swing in Gembrook which takes in Pakenham.

The seat of La Trobe in the Federal Election.

Despite it being a target seat it has been difficult to find anyone in Labor who is confident they will win it.

They’ve been disappointed too many times before.

“It’s hard for us there,” one senior Labor operative said recently, pointing out that the only time they have won it since Bob Hawke was Prime Minister was in 2010, the high watermark of Labor’s vote in Victoria.

From this poll Wood would be happy that his primary vote is only 1.3 per down, what it is estimated he would have got last time if the election had been fought on the new boundaries.

He would be unhappy that Labor’s primary is just shy of 7 per cent higher that it was in 2016.

That’s a big swing.

If it turns out to be correct on Saturday how the 11 per cent that plumped Clive Palmer or the “other” will determine who wins.

MORE: WHERE TO VOTE THIS SATURDAY IN VICTORIA

It should be worrying to Wood that, as in Deakin, Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party is running and preferencing Labor because in 2016, Hinch got more than 4.2 per cent.

If that is repeated at this election and they follow and Hinch’s supporters follow his ticket, Wood could be in a spot of bother on Saturday.

Originally published as Federal Election 2019: Poll shows La Trobe on knife’s edge