Federal election 2016: Swing back to Labor not enough for Shorten to form government

LABOR has failed to win back the hearts and minds of Western Sydney in all but one of the five key marginal seats it needs to take office.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and member for Lindsay Fiona Scott speak to the media this week. An exclusive poll shows the Coalition defying a swing to Labor in the seat of Lindsay.

LABOR has failed to win back the hearts and minds of Western Sydney in all but one of the five key marginal seats it needs to take office.

More critically it has nose-dived in the bellwether seat of Lindsay, the electorate held by Fiona Scott which Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull this week declared would be the one that decided who formed government after July 2.

Labor leader Bill Shorten also trails Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister in all key marginal seats despite a significant swing against the Turnbull government.

Mr Turnbull greets Lindsay MP Fiona Scott in Penrith this week. Picture: Dylan Robinson

An exclusive Galaxy Research marginal seat poll commissioned by The Saturday Telegraph has confirmed a swing back to Labor across western Sydney of 3.5 per cent.

But it was not enough to take back the seats needed if it wants to form government, with the Coalition ahead in Lindsay, Gilmore and Reid and potentially holding on to Banks, where the count was neck and neck.

Labor’s primary vote lifted in all seats except Lindsay but not by a big enough margin to win them back.

Labor only looks assured of taking back the seat of Macarthur, where its primary vote has surged four points to put it ahead of the Coalition on a two party preferred vote of 51/49.

The parties were also deadlocked in the Central Coast seat of Dobell despite expectations that Labor was assured of making significant inroads in the region.

The surprise was the Penrith heartland seat of Lindsay, where Labor’s primary vote has tanked five points to a low of 34 per cent after former Gillard minister David Bradbury lost the seat in 2013.

The Coalition now has a commanding 54/46 lead in the two party preferred count. However, the wildcard is the preference flow, with votes for “other” minor parties almost doubling due to the Nick Xenophon Party candidate.

Labor’s primary vote lifted in all seats except Lindsay but not by a big enough margin to win them back.

Galaxy Research CEO David Briggs said the “sophomore” factor was clearly in play and favouring the government, with the majority of the key seats being held by first term Coalition MPs who generally have a better chance of being re-elected for a second term.

“However the poll confirms most of these seats are definitely in play and with seven weeks to go to election day there is still a long way to go.”

“The Labor Party has so far failed to make the inroads required in the key NSW seats they will need to win if they are to form government after the election on 2 July,” Mr Briggs said.

“If these results are observed at the ballot box on 2 July then the Labor Party may pick up just one or two of the seats they need to win in NSW if they are to form government.

“However the poll confirms most of these seats are definitely in play and with seven weeks to go to election day there is still a long way to go.”

Mr Briggs also highlighted the some notable figures in the sample of more than 500 voters in each electorate on the issue of preferred prime minister, despite the overall verdict for Mr Turnbull.

“Across all six seats there is general agreement that Malcolm Turnbull will make the better prime minister. Belief in Malcolm Turnbull is highest in Reid (51 per cent), where he leads Bill Shorten by 26 points.

“In the seat of Macarthur just 38 per cent rate Malcolm Turnbull as the better prime minister and he leads Bill Shorten by nine percentage points.”

The poll was based on a sample of more than 500 voters in each electorate.