Federal election 2016: Coalition would have been smashed if Abbott was still PM

EXCLUSIVE: Tony Abbott’s survival as Prime Minister would have killed the government at the election with Shorten elected with a majority of 29 seats if Abbott were still the leader.

Professor Rafa Calvo talks figures with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the Brain and Mind Centre at Sydney University on Saturday. Picture: Sahlan Hayes

TONY Abbott’s survival as Prime Minister would have killed the government at the election according to voters across Australia.

An exclusive Galaxy poll commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph has vindicated the Prime Minister’s decision to knife his predecessor.

It finds Labor leader Bill Shorten would have been elected as Prime Minister with a majority of 29 seats if Tony Abbott were still the leader.

Voters can tell Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull apart, even if protestors supporting same-sex marriage in Brisbane on Saturday could not. Pictures: Jack Tran

Asked how they would vote in an election if Tony Abbott were the candidate, the result was a 53:47 two-party preferred split, with Labor securing a clear majority.

The Coalition’s primary vote crashed to 38 per cent when voters were asked how they would respond to an election with Tony Abbott still leading the government.

The Labor Party’s primary vote was also 38 per cent but this was an increase on the 2013  result  and would  still see Mr Shorten elected on preferences.

The Greens support was unchanged at 11 per cent.

The Prime Minister is continuing to defy calls to reappoint Mr Abbott to his frontbench.

But asked if his pledge was to “never, ever’’ consider the option, Mr Turnbull declined to say.

“I don’t want to say anymore than what I’ve said, which is that I have a very good cabinet that has only been recently reshuffled,’’ he said.

“I am limiting myself to those remarks.

Poll: Galaxy

“That the cabinet I have today will be the same if we win the election. I am a great believer in renewal.’’

Mr Turnbull told The Sunday Telegraph he was in regular contact with his predecessor.

“Ah, we communicate regularly one way or another. On the phone. Or texting. The usual sort of technologies. But recently. Mmm. Just general political stuff.’’

Malcolm Turnbull said he communicates with Tony Abbott regularly. Picture: Jason Edwards

Voters also told the Galaxy poll that Malcolm Turnbull had outperformed Bill Shorten in this campaign, but only by a narrow margin.

“Overall, 40 per cent of voters believe Malcolm Turnbull has performed the best in the campaign versus 36 per cent for Bill Shorten.

“A further 24 per cent are uncommitted,’’ Galaxy pollster David Briggs said.

“Had Tony Abbott been leading the Coalition into this election the result would have been very different.

“Primary support for the Coalition would be four percentage points lower,’’ he said.

“A swing of this magnitude would have delivered Labor 29 seats and a sizeable majority in the new parliament.’’