Election 2022: Polling shows shock results for five crucial seats

A new poll of five crucial marginal seats has predicted some unexpected results ahead of Saturday’s election.

EXCLUSIVE

A shock new poll has predicted that popular NSW Liberal Andrew Constance’s switch to federal politics is set to end in tears, with Labor to retain the seat of Gilmore.

According to the uComm poll, Mr Constance, who quit the NSW parliament last year, is languishing on a primary vote of just 34.1 per cent in his bid for the federal seat south of Sydney. On a two-party preferred basis he is behind 43:57 to Labor’s Fiona Phillips.

The major poll looked at five crucial marginal seats impacted by fires and flood, with some surprising results. And while voters in those areas indicated that they would be swayed by those candidates with strong climate policies, it wasn’t all bad news for the Coalition.

The results did suggest Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s hopes of repeating his 2019 strategy of taking some unexpected seats from Labor could be paying dividends.

For example, Labor’s Kristy McBain is in trouble in the seat of Eden-Monaro in the south of NSW, with the pollsters predicting that Dr Jerry Nockles could pick up the seat from Labor.

Stream more election news live & on demand with Flash. 25+ news channels in 1 place. New to Flash? Try 1 month free. Offer ends 31 October, 2022 >

Gilmore Liberal candidate Andrew Constance (left) at a pre-poll centre in Nowra. Picture: Dylan Arvela

The uComm poll suggests it’s neck and neck in the seat though, with sitting member Ms McBain behind 49:51 on a two party preferred basis.

She’s on a primary vote of 39 per cent – more than her challenger Dr Nockles – but he’s being assisted by preference flows from One Nation and Clive Palmer’s UAP.

In the northern NSW seat of Page, where Labor candidate Patrick Deegan is hopeful of picking up the seat from Nationals MP Kevin Hogan, it’s also neck and neck with the sitting MP ahead 51:49.

But in the Queensland seat of Ryan, in Greater Brisbane, the ALP is expected to romp it home with a two party preferred result of 55:45.

Despite the fact Labor’s Peter Cossar is on a primary vote of just 27 per cent, he is poised to win the seat, according to the poll, with a whopping 22 per cent vote expected for the Greens.

A GetUp survey of 828 residents in the seat of Gilmore. Picture: GetUp

The Liberals are on a primary vote of 35 per cent. If the poll is accurate, that’s a huge turnaround since the last election when the two party preferred result was 54:42 in the Liberals’ favour.

In the seat of Macquarie, west of Sydney, Labor’s Susan Templeman is also expected to prevail and is ahead 56:44.

Labor strategists thought the predictions of the primary vote in Gilmore and Ryan seemed over-egged in the uComms poll but did not dispute they expected to win the seats.

They also said the prediction in Eden-Monaro underestimated support for Ms McBain.

Poll finds voters want strong climate policies

The new polling in the five crucial marginal seats was conducted by uComm and commissioned by GetUp, finding that voters in the electorates of Macquarie, Gilmore, Eden-Monaro, Ryan and Page were more likely to vote for candidates with strong climate policies because of the recent floods and fires.

A majority of voters – 55 per cent – agreed with the statement: “The recent floods and fires have made me more likely to vote for a party or candidates with stronger climate policies.”

The question drew support form 55 per cent of voters in Macquarie, Page and Eden-Monaro, and 58 per cent of voters in Gilmore which was hardest hit by the bushfires.

Labor’s Susan Templeman looks set to retain her seat of Macquarie in the Blue Mountains/Hawkesbury region near Sydney. Picture: Tim Hunter

GetUp’s Kathryn McCallum said voters in all five seats – including undecided voters – were less likely to vote for Liberal and National candidates due to the Morrison Government’s response to the recent flooding and the 2019-20 bushfires.

“The polling is clear: Voters in communities hit by climate disasters have given the Morrison Government a failing grade. They want climate leadership,’’ she said.

“From Cobargo to Lismore, the Morrison Government has abandoned the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis. When bushfires raged, the Prime Minister said he didn’t hold a hose. When floods hit Queensland and northern NSW, he refused to meet with locals. Now he’s paying the price.

“These are some of the most marginal seats in the country. Every single vote is going to count towards the final result. This polling tells us that the Morrison Government’s failure to adequately support disaster-hit communities – and take serious action on climate change – is hurting their re-election chances in the seats they most need to form government.”

Originally published as Election 2022: Polling shows shock results for five crucial seats