Coalition modelling shows electorates hardest hit if negative gearing was overhauled

Australians would be hit with a $200 billion tax bomb if negative gearing is ripped up under pressure from Teal crossbenchers, with new modelling showing where voters would be most affected.

Homeowners in Teal-held seats would be among the hardest hit if negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts were ripped up under pressure from crossbenchers, with new modelling from the Coalition showing where a $200 billion tax bomb would hit the hardest.

The figures come after Greens leader Adam Bandt on the weekend confirmed he’d requested government departments prepare new briefings on overhauling the tax breaks, so his party could immediately enter negotiations with Labor if the major party scrapes into minority government.

Mr Albanese last week ruled out a deal with the Greens on negative gearing, but will come under pressure from their renewed push and other crossbenchers, including Teals who support wide-ranging reviews into current tax settings.

Asked earlier this month if negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks should be wound back, Kooyong MP Dr Monique Ryan told the ABC: “I think we need to look at every aspect of our tax system to improve housing affordability for Australians”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail. Picture: Mark Stewart / NewsWire

Teal MP Monique Ryan on ABC's Insiders program. Source: ABC

In September 2024, Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel also said: “The impact of distortionary tax settings like Capital Gains Tax and Negative Gearing must be on the table in an independent ‘everything on the table’ tax review”.

“Make no mistake, negative gearing and capital gains tax changes will be the first thing to happen under an Albanese minority government,” Coalition treasury spokesman Angus Taylor claimed.

“Labor wanted to do this in opposition, modelled it in government, and will jump at the chance to raise housing taxes if in government.”Teal-held or targeted seats would be the hardest hit in the country if negative gearing was scrapped, according to the Coalition’s modelling.

Greens leader Adam Bandt. Picture: NewsWire / Valeriu Campan

Teal independent Nicolette Boele. Picture by Renee Nowytarger

Among the electorates which would be most impacted is Bradfield, which is being targeted by Teal independent Nicolette Boele, and where 14.1 per cent of taxpayers negatively gear, receiving an average tax benefit of $5,517 a year.

The total amount of extra tax paid over the coming year in the electorate would be more than $73m if negative gearing was abolished.

In Dr Ryan’s electorate of Kooyong in Victoria, 11.1 per cent of taxpayers use the tax break, saving $6,238 each a year.

Cutting negative gearing would result in $62.9m in tax being paid in that electorate.

In Goldstein, held by Teal MP Ms Daniel, 10.7 per cent of those paying tax use negative gearing, saving $4,687.

Costings undertaken by the Parliamentary Budget Office, at the request of Greens leader Mr Bandt earlier this year, stated $193 billion in extra tax would be paid by Aussies between 2025-2026 and 2035-2036 if negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts were ripped up.

Mr Dutton last week launched on comments from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who said at their leader’s debate on Wednesday that modelling undertaken by Treasury last year on changes to negative gearing “certainly wasn’t commissioned by us”.

The Opposition leader used the moment to claim a minority Labor government would be “a disaster for negative gearing” if Mr Albanese was forced into negotiating with Teals open to reforming the tax break.

Read more election coverage here.