Nick Xenophon could hold balance in Senate power struggle
SOUTH Australian Senator Nick Xenophon could hold the balance of power in the Senate after the July 2 double-dissolution election.
Analysis
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SOUTH Australian Senator Nick Xenophon could hold the balance of power in the Senate after the July 2 double-dissolution election.
Number crunchers from the major parties say Senator Xenophon’s profile could help elect two or even three candidates alongside him in South Australia.
SENATOR NICK XENOPHON USES STEEL, SHIPS AS BARGAINING CHIPS
He currently shares a portion of the balance of power with seven other diverse crossbenchers.
But new voting rules coming into effect for this election will see the preference swaps for micro-parties banned, meaning they will be unable to be elected with a tiny portion of the vote.
This would also likely wipe out the Palmer United Party’s sole WA Senator.
But Senator Xenophon, who outpolled the Labor Party with a primary vote of 24.88 per cent at the last federal election, could benefit by getting several fellow candidates elected in the double dissolution, which sees the quota required for election drop to just over 7 per cent.
The Coalition is likely to win a minimum of 31 seats in the 76-seat Senate, and possibly as many as 35 seats.
Under this scenario, securing Senator Xenophon’s vote would give the Coalition either 38 seats — a blocking majority — or 39 seats, an outright majority.
Labor expects to win a minimum of 26 seats, while the Greens could expect a minimum of nine, giving them a potential block of 35 — again putting Senator Xenophon in a balance-of-power position.
The likely maximum for Labor of 29 seats, and 11 for the Greens, would give them an outright majority, which would not require Senator Xenophon’s vote.
The only other crossbenchers considered a chance under the new Senate voting rules would be the controversial Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania, and broadcaster Derryn Hinch, in Victoria.
“Hinch is the wildcard, otherwise there’s still time for high-profile candidates to emerge in other states,’’ one senior party strategist said.
Senator Xenophon is a former lawyer who became an Upper House MP in the South Australian Parliament on a no-pokies platform in 1997.
He switched to the Senate in 2007 and is now considered such a powerful political force in his home state, he is even considered a chance to knock off sitting Liberals in two House of Representatives seats.
Senator Xenophon told the Herald Sun suggestions he would hold the balance of power were “mischievous speculation.’’
Originally published as Nick Xenophon could hold balance in Senate power struggle
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