Five weeks of the election campaign left and we need to be inspired

FIVE months gone in the year and five weeks to polling day and in a world in upheaval, Australian voters need to be inspired by our leaders, writes Jeff Kennett.

The European refugee crisis can be turned to a positive. Picture: AFP

FIVE months of the year are gone already but what have we learned in that time, here and abroad? Starting with Europe, their economies have generally been sluggish as they deal with the issues arising from Greece’s struggles and the bigger challenge of having to process millions of displaced people.

The long-term upside to resettling refugees, if successively achieved, could be the economic upturn in Europe. Hundreds of thousands of new arrivals, needing to be housed, fed and educated, could produce a quick return to economic growth, in the same way that new arrivals in Australia from World War II stimulated our growth for decades.

In the United States it seems economic growth is increasing, with the Federal Reserve signalling another possible rise in interest rates. Such an uplift in the US economy is important for Australia. But most attention in the US is focused on their upcoming election. I wrote in this column in January that Donald Trump could easily be the next US president. The odds are shortening every day. Why? Many Americans have had a gutful of traditional politics and politicians. They want someone who speaks their language and will be a president for America, not the world.

In Asia, India and China continue to stir and exercise their influence not only on our region but the world. Just as influence moved from Britain and Europe after the US Civil War, so will our region become the centre of economic growth and activity by the end of this century.

Meanwhile, the Philippines has just elected its equivalent of Trump to the presidency. Another rejection of the establishment in favour of those who communicate in the language of the people.

China’s transformation will continue, with a few bumps along the way, but those will be dealt with by the momentum of change. The only real risk I see for China is if it pursues territorial gain, beyond what is currently its domain.

In Australia, we have seen some huge commercial successes such as Atlassian and CSL over the past five months. But we have also seen continuing pressure on our manufacturing industries, at the same time as the completion of many big construction projects in the mining industry.

Donald Trump is gaining ground because voters want change.

Sadly, we have also seen a big jump in the number of suicides — in 2014 there were 2864, representing eight Australians a day taking their lives. That figure is double our road toll.

And the number of our youth who are unemployed in many country and provincial towns and cities is as high as 30 per cent.

The incident of the drug ice is increasing, with profound effects for users and their families, and those first responders who must deal with their behaviour.

We are seeing an increasing number of public servants when, with new technology, we should be able to employ fewer and deliver more efficient services.

Then, of course, we are in the middle of a federal election campaign, the result of which is anyone’s guess. Neither party has cut through with a simple style of leadership and narrative to which the community is drawn.

Only our party-based system of democracy is stopping the public duplicating what is happening in the US and has occurred in the Philippines: voting for someone who is a break from the past.

I still believe Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition will win, for three reasons: he is a successful man who, from humble beginnings, hard work and a great partnership with his wife, has built a strong family. He might be able to do the same for the country.

Secondly, and this is a sad reflection on politics today, he looks like a Prime Minister.

Thirdly, I do not believe the public is ready to return the ALP to government at a federal level and many people do not trust Bill Shorten. But Shorten and Labor have done a remarkable job pegging back the government. They have campaigned better and are more focused. They have set the policy agenda and taken risks, which are being rewarded.

But regardless of the strengths and weaknesses of the two major parties, the reality is that disillusionment today is so great that it will be minor party and independent preferences that will decide the shape of the government.

It’s worth considering that there are close to 400,000 young people who have not registered to vote. Sad but true.

It will probably help the government, but it is a reflection of public apathy.

In Australia we have so much to offer, but so much complacency. We are living beyond our means but no one is prepared to tackle that issue and the public is crying out for leadership in a language it can understand — but none is forthcoming. At a time when our major partners seem to be coming out of the economic malaise of the past five years, I fear Australia is standing still or even shrinking.

Let’s hope I am wrong and the next five weeks will give us cause to feel optimistic about our future.

Have a good day.

Jeff Kennett is a former premier of Victoria

@jeff_kennett

Originally published as Five weeks of the election campaign left and we need to be inspired