Federal election 2016: Opinion - Independent Senator Nick Xenophon looming as key powerbroker
DENNIS ATKINS: Independent Senator Nick Xenophon is looming as the powerbroker to be reckoned with after the July 2 election.
Analysis
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NICK Xenophon is the man-most-likely-to “win” this election - poised to scoop up the anti-politician vote from both Labor and the Liberals in his home state of South Australia and possibly elsewhere.
At the last Senate election in 2013 Xenophon outpolled the Australian Labor Party, pushing them down to third place and earning a quota for the Upper House in his own right.
Now he’s looking good to take at least two and probably three senate seats in South Australia with the support of one in four South Australians.
The last South Australian state federal polling recorded the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) on 24 per cent statewide, just a few points below Labor on 28 and the Liberals on 33 per cent.
The Galaxy poll in February showed Xenophon taking about 12 points off the Liberals and more than 8 per cent from Labor with the rest of his support coming from Greens and others.
The other remarkable thing about the Xenophon vote is that when the 2013 senate results are mapped on House of Representative seats, Labor and Liberal shared first and second place in just one of those electorates.
That means that in 10 of the 11 SA seats the Xenophon party could have come second if they had a lower house candidate which gives the NXT party at least a chance in any of those seats.
The ones the major parties say Xenophon candidates could cause an upset are relatively safe Liberal and Labor seats - Mayo held by former Liberal minister Jamie Briggs and Port Adelaide where Labor’s national president and senior front bencher Mark Butler is the local MP.
Xenophon himself is relaxed about his possible political power, saying he would exercise any increase in parliamentary numbers in the same way he’s used his one Senate vote over the past eight years.
In a Senate which will still have a cross bench with about eight MPs from the other parties and at least half a dozen Greens, Xenophon is looming as the powerbroker to be reckoned with.
His date with destiny looks like being July 2.
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