Federal election 2016: Nation likely to go to bed on polling day not knowing a result

OPINION: We’re now officially in the second half of the election campaign. But even though polling day is almost in sight, don’t get too excited. The day itself may just bring more uncertainty.

HERE’S a not-so-cheery thought as we begin what is the first week of the second half of the longest election campaign since there was black and white telly and Johnny Farnham was singing Raindrops Keep Falling on my Head on the AM radio.

This election might not stop by bedtime on July 2. We are very likely to go to bed not knowing who has won and may have to wait days or even a week or two.

The Turnbullian nature of this election — man with a giant brain thinks if he does, it will happen as planned and rolls dice on eight week campaign — has prepared the ground for uncertainty and the unknown.

A week from tomorrow the first votes will be cast in this election, at pre-poll booths across the nation. This will happen just over five weeks into the campaign which is the “normal” time people would be voting — as if normal means anything in this race.

These booths have become increasingly popular among voters — ever since you didn’t have to have a note from your doctor/mother/teacher saying why you couldn’t turn up to a proper polling booth on election day.

Now the pre-poll booths are usually the biggest booths on the night in any electorate which makes them vital.

Both major parties are expecting big turnouts at their pre-poll booths from next Tuesday which means the candidates will spend time every day on duty handing out cards and being nice.

The other factor certain to boost pre polls is that school holidays around the country bump up against July 2 which will ensure plenty of families will be away from home with voting the last thing on their minds.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull greets Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten at a wreath laying ceremony at the Shrine of Rememberance in Melbourne on Sunday. PIC: AAP

The practical result of all this is a record pre-poll vote — up from the 25 to 30 per cent we’ve seen in recent elections and perhaps as high as 40 to 50 per cent in some electorates.

So instead of seeing a close of counting on the night to say 80 to 85 per cent of the vote, which is what we’re used to, we will be going to bed with counts pulling up at 60 per cent.

In many cases we will know where things are going and be able to put this seat or that seat in a particular party column.

However, this is not always going to be the case especially with polls showing a contest that is close.

So keep the pizza joint on speed dial and settle in for a count that might stretch through that first week of July.

Originally published as Federal election 2016: Nation likely to go to bed on polling day not knowing a result