Liberal Party face losing Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer: poll

Kelly O’Dwyer, one of the most senior women in the Morrison Government, would lose her seat to Labor at the next federal election according to a new ReachTel poll.

A blue-riband Melbourne Liberal seat, previously held by two prime ministers, would be lost at the next federal election under new polling obtained by the Herald Sun.

Kelly O’Dwyer, one of the most senior women in the Morrison Government, would lose her seat to Labor on a two-party vote of 53-47 — reflecting the collapse of the Coalition’s vote at the Victorian state election.

The ReachTEL poll of about 1000 voters in suburbs including Toorak, Armadale and Malvern and trendy South Yarra and Prahran on Tuesday night, showed a 14-point drop in the Liberals’ primary vote since the 2016 election.

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It comes just days after the Herald Sun revealed Ms O’Dwyer launched an extraordinary spray against the party, claiming it was seen as “homophobic, anti-women, climate-change deniers”.

The result will send a shiver down the spine of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government following Labor’s huge victory on Saturday.

The poll, commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union, shows fewer than 35 per cent of voters under the age of 50 were prepared to vote for the Liberals, with the Greens also losing voters to Labor on the 2016 result.

It used only party names and not those of the candidates, but showed the Liberal primary vote was just 38.6 per cent, ahead of Labor (32.5 per cent) and the Greens (18.8 per cent).

The Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Kelly O'Dwyer during Question Time. Picture Gary Ramage

Ms O’Dwyer — who polled 52 per cent of the primary vote in 2016 — told the Herald Sun she had “never taken the people of Higgins for granted” and “never will”.

“I will continue to work hard each and every day to represent the community that I live in and that I’m raising my young family in,” she said.

The result mirrors massive swings away from the party in Melbourne’s inner-city suburbs on Saturday.

The average swing to Labor within the four state seats in Higgins was 8 per cent on Saturday, with Malvern, held by shadow treasurer Michael O’Brien, currently at 11 per cent as counting continued last night.

Higgins has been in Liberal hands since it was established in 1949, having been held by prime ministers Harold Holt, John Gorton and former treasurer Peter Costello.

Labor has preselected former staffer Josh Spiegel to contest the election, while Jason Ball, a prominent LGBTI activist, will again run for the Greens.

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Originally published as Liberal Party face losing Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer: poll