James Campbell: Libs have no power over what Nationals do with their preferences

Scott Morrison has done everything in his power to deal with his One Nation problem. Unfortunately as Liberal leader, his powers don’t include dictating what the Nationals do with their preferences, writes James Campbell.

Scott Morrison has done everything in his power to deal with his One Nation problem. Unfortunately as Liberal leader, his powers don’t include dictating what the Nationals do with their preferences.

Worse, in Queensland, there are no National and Liberal parties anymore: just the LNP hybrid. Morrison now faces the awful prospect of his MPs in the Sunshine State splitting on the issue.

SCOTT MORRISON CUTS TIES WITH ONE NATION

FATHER OF PORT ARTHUR VICTIMS SLAMS HANSON

THE WORDS THAT MAY BRING DOWN ONE NATION

We’ve been here before. In 1998, the Libs and Nats were in danger of going different ways on One Nation preferences. Then, as now, the Nationals were split on the issue.

Some wanted to preference Pauline Hanson. Others, led by Ron Boswell, were adamant she had to go last. In the end, what swung the argument to the anti-Hanson forces was self-interest.

Senator Pauline Hanson holds a press conference with chief of staff James Ashby. Picture: Liam Kidston

As a parliamentary research paper on that year’s Queensland election put it: “Evidence suggests that the decision of the Liberal Party to direct preferences to One Nation ahead of the ALP cost the party votes and seats in Brisbane.”

The result was a Labor win. Eighteen years later, the 2017 WA election was similar. The Libs did a preference deal with One Nation, and the result was a Labor win.

That same year in Queensland, the LNP preferenced One Nation ahead of Labor in 50 seats. The result was a Labor win. There’s a pattern here, can you pick it?

Forget about any talk of One Nation being part of a populist wave sweeping the world.

The brutal electoral maths in Australia is the conservative parties lose more than they gain from dealing with Hanson because she drives their voters into the arms of the ALP.

Scott Morrison has done everything in his power to deal with his One Nation problem.

Scott Morrison understands this, which is why he was always going to land here. Al Jazeera has simply given him the chance to have the argument.

In Victoria, Liberal relief over Morrison’s decision is tempered however by the realisation that until the Nats and the LNP come to their senses, they know they are not out of the woods on the issue.

Unfortunately, Hanson’s performance yesterday at her scheduled press conference that turned into a party political broadcast, will not help to bring the Nats to their senses.

Doing what she does best — portraying herself as the outsider wronged by the major parties and their allies in the wicked media — Hanson’s performance was a direct pitch over the heads of the “elites” to her people, which ended with an unstated threat to Morrison that he had handed the keys to the Lodge to Bill Shorten.

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Originally published as James Campbell: Libs have no power over what Nationals do with their preferences