How Russia conflict could lead to WWIII

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems pretty far away from Australia, but has the potential to ignite war in the Pacific.

As Russia’s assault of Ukraine continues, with Russian forces launching missile attacks on the capital Kyiv, a lot of people are understandably wondering if we are witnessing the prelude to World War III.

The short answer is, it could. So far we have seen a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West though there is currently no direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Earlier this month, US President Joe Biden vowed he would not deploy American troops to Ukraine.

“That’s a world war when Americans and Russians start shooting at each other,” he said.

Despite these assurances, the invasion of Ukraine has the potential to act as a powder keg as other countries with expansionist goals could be emboldened to get involved.

Russian tanks destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Photo: Supplied

Award-winning journalist, Charles Miranda told news.com.au’s ‘I’ve Got News For You’ that the involvement of the great Cold War powers of the US and Russia along with the rest of Europe could escalate into a larger crisis and cause other countries to get involved.

“History will tell us when Germany invaded Poland that seemed like a natural time for Japan to flex its muscle in the Pacific,” he said.

“The pessimists amongst us will say, well if Russia is going to take Ukraine and then Poland, then perhaps Estonia, Lithuania and some of those Baltic States, there is nothing stopping China, while the world is distracted to move into Taiwan.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of big businesses at the Kremlin in Moscow on February 24, 2022. Picture: Alexey Nikolsky/AFP

Should China use events in Ukraine as an opportunity to expand in the Pacific, Miranda thinks it will be entirely likely Australia would be forced to get involved in the conflict.

“If something erupts here we will be called on certainly. In a maritime perspective we will have to deploy ships and co-ordinate the maintaining of international sea lanes and the like.”

Scott Morrison has said he believes China is watching the conflict “very carefully” warning them to “not even think” about invading Taiwan.

“I have been at pains to say that China needs to take a strong position as other countries in denouncing what Russia is doing,” Mr Morrison told Channel 7.

China has currently not imposed sanctions on Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. Picture: Alexei Druzhinin/AFP.

At present the Prime Minister has reassured Australians that he will not send troops into Ukraine, instead opting to provide assistance in the form of sanctions and accepting refugees from the region. Miranda said he didn’t think Australian boots on the ground was very likely due to the small size of our army.

“It’s basically the size of a small European city.”

Russia and particularly Vladimir Putin have had territorial ambitions in Ukraine for many years, long before the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Miranda pointed out.

“This has been his obsession since well before this conflict started in 2014 …[19]91 was the end of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union and Putin has been hell bent since that day, vowing to return the Soviet Union to its former glory.”

Map of the Soviet Union 1945-46. Ukraine has previously been part of the Soviet Union. Graphic: Creative Commons.

Similarly, China was once a large empire, encompassing present-day Taiwan and Hong Kong. Just as Russia sees Ukraine as a country that exists on land that is historically and rightfully Russian, China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province to which it believes it has a territorial claim.

With all these tensions and competing claims playing out on the world stage, Miranda believes we are at a critical moment.

“You have that sort of powder keg potential, globally at the moment anything could happen.”

Charles Miranda is an award-winning journalist who has spent 10 years as a European and Middle East correspondent. To hear the full interview including some of Mr Miranda’s war stories, chime in to the ‘I’ve Got News For You’ podcast.

Originally published as How Russia conflict could lead to WWIII