Liberal Party prepares to announce Corangamite candidate as experts examine the changing nature of the electorate

As the Liberal Party prepares to announce its candidate for the next federal election, experts explain what a changing Corangamite means for their political fortunes – and it’s not great news.

Political strategist and Redbridge Group director Kos Samaras says the changing demographics of the Corangamite electorate favour Labor. Picture: Aaron Francis.

When Corangamite voters cast their ballots at the next federal election, it will be a fork in the road moment for the electorate.

The subsequent result will indicate whether the once conservative stronghold has become a relatively safe Labor seat or whether the poor showing by the Liberals in 2022 was just a blip.

“That entire Geelong corridor has become more and more safe for Labor as the years have rolled on and I don’t see that changing,” political strategist and lobbyist Kos Samaras says.

“In saying that, it will always sit at a margin where it’s not completely safe, therefore parties will go out of their way to provide more funding for the local communities down there.”

If Labor MP Libby Coker is once again successful – the most likely outcome – she will become the first Labor member to twice retain the seat.

The election must be held by September next year.

Her opponent is likely to be former SAS soldier and Bellbrae resident Darcy Dunstan.

Mr Dunstan is the clear frontrunner for Liberal preselection, with the small business owner spending time in Canberra this week to meet party powerbrokers.

Darcy Dunstan.

“Darcy is an extremely hard worker who, if selected, will fight tooth and nail for the issues which matter to the people of Corangamite,” former Corangamite MP turned senator Sarah Henderson says.

“Corangamite residents deserve a local MP who will stand up and deliver for our region and Darcy has what it takes to make a real difference.”

Mr Dunstan’s preselection still needs to be ratified by the party’s state executive.

The Liberals will campaign primarily on cost of living issues, which it views as a weak point of the Albanese government despite a series of polls finding support for Labor’s U-turn on the stage three tax cuts earlier this year.

Ms Henderson, who held Corangamite for two terms before being narrowly beaten by Ms Coker in 2019, says the axing of a $4bn investment in faster rail and Labor’s failure to fund any new local projects in successive federal budgets shows it has turned its back on the region.

“Libby Coker has been a very poor representative for our region, sitting on her hands over the nonsensical gas ban, the loss of local maternity services, and the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games,” she says.

“We take nothing for granted but I believe the Liberal Party has a very good chance in Corangamite.”

Corangamite MP Libby Coker in Parliament House this week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman.

Despite a raft of announcements and multiple visits by then prime minister Scott Morrison, Ms Coker comfortably defeated former Geelong mayor Stephanie Asher at the 2022 election.

Aided by a favourable electoral boundary redraw that moved a host of regional communities into the Wannon and Ballarat electorates, Ms Coker increased her margin from 1 per cent – or 2170 votes – to a healthy 7.6 per cent.

She says Labor’s top priority is addressing cost of living concerns and that opposition leader Peter Dutton is “all negativity and zero plan”.

“The Liberal Party’s main policy idea is small modular reactors, which don’t really exist, and large-scale nuclear reactors on Australia’s beaches and waterways – likely one at Anglesea if they get their way,” Ms Coker says.

“Residents can rest assured, I’ll fight every single minute of every day against a nuclear reactor on the Surf Coast.”

Under the new boundaries, Anglesea now falls within Wannon, whose Liberal MP Dan Tehan has ruled out the area as a potential site.

A further redraw will occur before the next election, with draft plans to be released in the coming months.

Deakin University politics lecturer Geoff Robinson says he will be surprised if the Liberals target the seat again given the most recent result.

“I think they’re irons will be elsewhere, which is maybe disappointing for the Geelong region, but I’d be very surprised if they gave it anywhere near the attention they did last time,” he says.

“If the Liberals ever did win it (again), they’d be winning in a huge landslide … at the moment it’s moved out their grip and that’s largely got to do with the demographic change we are seeing.”

Mr Samaras, a former Labor campaign director who now heads up the Redbridge Group, agrees that the changing demographic profile of Corangamite is working against the Liberals.

“This is being driven by, primarily, two cohorts: progressive downsizers moving there and younger people moving into the greenfield suburbs,” he says.

“Lots and lots of people are moving to the area who are statistically better for Labor than they are for Liberals.

“Coastal communities are evolving into progressive environments, the levels of education are going higher, environmental movements are quite significant … all of that points towards coastal communities being left of centre when compared to regional communities further inland.

“The Liberals’ pathway to government is more inland, metropolitan growth areas … there are parts or Corangamite that match that demographic footprint, it’s that coastal element that shifts the dial.”

A map of the Corangamite electorate as it stands. Another redistribution will be announced later this year.

Ms Samaras says the Liberal candidate will, at best, be able to impact 1000 votes, with their chances dependant on what’s happening federally.

“The candidate will be carrying the brand legacy of the federal Coalition, so depending on how they are faring in 12 months’ time will determine the fate of this person politically,” he says.

“It’s about how the Coalition brand is resonating in Geelong and if it’s not resonating well, it doesn’t matter how good the candidate is.”

Geelong-based state Liberal MP Bev McArthur, whose husband Stewart held Corangamite for 23 years before being knocked off by Darren Cheeseman in 2007, dismisses talk that Mr Dutton will hurt the party’s chances in Victoria.

“Australians appreciate a leader like Peter Dutton, who they know is strong on defence and border security, supportive of both the non-government and public education school systems and is committed to ensuring that Australians keep more of their hard-earned money,” she says.

“He stands up for what is right, not woke.”

Monash University’s Zareh Ghazarian says the goal of the Liberals should be to cut Labor’s margin half.

“To win a seat with that margin in one go would be a pretty remarkable achievement,” he says.

“It will interesting to see whether 2022 was a flash in a pan, or is that result the future of things to come for the seat of Corangamite.”

Originally published as Liberal Party prepares to announce Corangamite candidate as experts examine the changing nature of the electorate