Geelong and Richmond are the teams most likely to slot into the top eight, writes Cam Mooney

A contender as low as 12th on the AFL ladder is one of two teams most likely to slot into the top eight over a big five-week period, writes Cam Mooney.

Seven simply doesn’t go into two.

The next five rounds of footy are really going to highlight the certainties from the also rans, with teams jostling for positions from as low as 12th where Richmond currently sits.

For mine, as I said in this column a few rounds ago, only four teams can win the premiership: Melbourne, Collingwood, Port Adelaide and a fully fit Geelong.

My opinion hasn’t wavered.

Brisbane’s form at the MCG is no good, and like the Power, have an ordinary recent finals record despite incredibly strong home and away seasons.

They’ve let their fans down in September.

Mark O’Connor was part of a stirring Cats win over the Demons in round 15. Picture: Michael Klein.

Meanwhile, while I don’t think they’re in the premiership conversation, the Saints should lock in finals action.

They have 3-4 gettable games coming up over the next five weeks.

So what will the bottom of the top eight look like by the end of July?

This is where it gets interesting for the likes of Geelong.

If either the Dons, Dogs or the Crows stumble, who are currently sixth, seventh and eighth respectively, they’re one of two teams I believe have the ability to pounce and leap into the top eight.

Ross Lyon instructs his charges against Richmond. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

The other team is Richmond.

The Tigers and the Cats have pretty similar runs too over the next five rounds with some very gettable games, plus a date with the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba.

You could see either banking up to four wins each over that five-round period, with the Tigers facing the likes of an injury-hit Sydney, a disastrous Eagles unit and a young and developing Hawthorn.

Likewise, the Cats face the Swans, North Melbourne, the Hawks and the Dockers at home.

Geelong also play the Gabba well, so Brisbane holds no major fears.

Richmond have the ability and the form to sneak into the top eight. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.

Their win against Melbourne was outstanding and could be the trigger for a late run to finals.

So which teams within the eight will stumble?

Essendon looks a likely contender with one of the toughest runs over the next five weeks: Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Geelong and the Dogs, who can turn it on just as quickly as they turn it off.

Brad Scott has done a great job turning Essendon into a more competitive unit.

But they’re not quite there yet.

Meanwhile, the Dogs also have tricky games against Freo, the Pies and the Giants.

You simply don’t know what you’re going to get with the Dogs in 2023.

They’ve been hit hard by injury too, especially in their back half, with Liam Jones and Jason Johannisen no chance of playing in this upcoming bracket of games I’m focusing on.

Finally to the Crows, who have surpassed expectations, no doubt.

And they’d be filthy to miss the finals from here.

But like the Dons, they have a tough run to the end of July, facing the Giants, Melbourne and then the all-important Showdown.

It’s shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.

Gold Coast has not shown enough this season to be a genuine challenger, but a finish just outside the eight would be a nice result for Stuart Dew.

Oliver Henry celebrates the win over Melbourne. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images.

Freo, however, with their most important player in Sean Darcy back in the team, face a rollercoaster five-week period with only two matches – against Carlton and Sydney – you’d see as anything close to a definite wins.

When it’s all said and done, I’m the most bullish about the Cats and the Tigers being the most likely to sneak into the eight at the end of July.

And if Geelong has a full and healthy list, it can still run the table and win back-to-back flags.

It’s just a matter of which team, above them on the ladder, opens the door of opportunity.

Originally published as Geelong and Richmond are the teams most likely to slot into the top eight, writes Cam Mooney