Games that will shape the GFNL finals and our predicted ladder

Six doesn’t go into five, so who misses out on the GFNL finals? We have run through every game in the last two rounds. See your side’s best and worst case and our predictions.

Bell Park and South Barwon are in hunt for the last two spots. Picture: Mike Dugdale

The finals race is down to the wire with three sides vying for the final two spots in the top-five.

There is just four points separating Bell Park in fourth and Colac in sixth after fifth-placed South Barwon’s commanding win over the Dragons on Saturday.

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No spots in the top-five are locked in either, with St Mary’s having the opportunity to jump into top-spot if St Joseph’s stumble.

See the games that will shape the finals race and how we expect the ladder to look at the end of the season.

NOTE: Teams listed in current ladder order.

1. St Joseph’s (16-0)

R17 – Lara (A)

R18 – Colac (H)

Colac is the only thing standing in the way of a flawless home-and-away season for St Joseph’s, which would be a remarkable achievement after missing the finals last year. The Tigers will be up and about with a finals spot on the line for them, but the Joeys would be expected to win. You’d expect the Joeys to play a full side to secure the week off with St Mary’s just one win behind in second.

Predicted finish: 1st (18-0)

St Joseph's is in the box seat to get the week off. Picture: Mark Wilson

2. St Mary’s (15-1)

R17 – St Albans (H)

R18 – Bell Park (A)

The Saints are locked in to finish top-two sitting three wins ahead of Leopold. The only way they can finish as minor premiers is if they win their last two games – as expected – the Joeys drop a game to Lara or Colac. Their staggering percentage of 271 will get another major boost against St Albans this week and should knock off Bell Park, who was trounced by South Barwon over the weekend.

Predicted finish: 2nd (17-1)

3. Leopold (12-4)

R17 – North Shore (H)

R18 – Newtown & Chillwell (A)

One win from Leopold’s last two games will be enough to book a qualifying final berth against St Mary’s or St Joseph’s, and the Lions should bring that up this week against North Shore. Bell Park sits a win behind in fourth but Leopold’s percentage is far superior to the Dragons. If they get the win over the Seagulls, don’t be surprised if they rest a few against Newtown & Chillwell. However, if they lose two games and the Dragons win both, they will slide to fourth.

Predicted finish: 3rd (14-4)

4. Bell Park (11-5)

R17 – Grovedale (A)

R18 – St Mary’s (H)

Bell Park was smashed by South Barwon but the Dragons are still four points ahead of the Swans and Colac. Two wins will seal a finals spot, but that seems unlikely with St Mary’s looming large in round 18. However, they can still make the finals with a win over Grovedale if South Barwon or Colac drop a game in the last fortnight. Dragons fans will be cheering on St Joseph’s in its final round clash with Colac, with that match poised to decide their finals fate. In a near impossible scenario, Bell Park could finish third if Leopold lose its next two games and the Dragons win both.

Predicted finish: 5th (12-6)

South Barwon defeated Bell Park last week. Picture: Mike Dugdale

5. South Barwon (10-6)

R17 – Newtown & Chillwell (H)

R18 – Geelong West (H)

South Barwon’s win over Bell Park was crucial, putting the Swans one win away from the Dragons and giving them a massive percentage boost – now 16 per cent clear of Colac in sixth. Newtown & Chillwell and Geelong West are no slouches, but we are tipping them to notch another two victories. If they can do this, they can climb as high as fourth, but need Bell Park to lose a game. Their dominant second half against Bell Park had hallmarks of their finish to last season, and don’t be surprised if they make it as far from an elimination final.

Predicted finish: 4th (12-6)

6. Colac (10-6)

R17 – Geelong West (A)

R18 – St Joseph’s (A)

Colac is staring down the barrel of missing the finals in its last season under Rowan McSparron — unless it knocks off the undefeated St Joseph’s. Percentage is one thing on the Tigers’ side, meaning it can easily account for Bell Park if they finish on the same amount of points. It means the Tigers are relying on Bell Park and South Barwon to slip up in order to make the top-five. However, if they lose to Geelong West this weekend it is likely curtains for 2024.

Predicted finish: 6th (11-7)

Colac needs a bit to go their way. Picture: Mark Wilson

7. Geelong West (6-10)

R17 – Colac (H)

R18 – South Barwon (A)

Geelong West is well outside the top-five, but it has the chance to shape the finals race with clashes against Colac and South Barwon. But they both have plenty to play for.

Predicted finish: 7th (6-12)

8. Newtown & Chillwell (6-10)

R17 – South Barwon (A)

R18 – Leopold (H)

Like Geelong West, the Towners can be finals party poopers. And with coach Damien McMahon out-of-contract, there will be something to play for.

Predicted finish: 8th (6-12)

9. Grovedale (4-12)

R17 – Bell Park (A)

R18 – North Shore (A)

Grovedale can send Bell Park crashing out of the top-five if it upsets the Dragons this weekend. Their final game against North Shore shapes as a winnable one that can level their 20 points from last year.

Predicted finish: 9th (5-13)

10. Lara (3-13)

R17 – St Joseph’s (H)

R18 – St Albans (H)

Lara could rise to ninth position with a big win over St Albans, but they’d also need North Shore to knock off Grovedale.

Predicted finish: 10th (4-14)

11. North Shore (2-14)

R17 – Leopold (A)

R18 – Grovedale (A)

North Shore is in with a sniff in its last match of the year, with Seagulls losing by a couple of goals in their last clash with Grovedale.

Predicted finish: 11th (2-16)

12. St Albans (1-15)

R17 – St Mary’s (A)

R18 – Lara (A)

St Albans’ low percentage is set to take another hit against St Mary’s this weekend. But their final-round clash with Lara presents as an opportunity to end the year on a high.

Predicted finish: 12th (2-16)

Originally published as Games that will shape the GFNL finals and our predicted ladder