How Leichhardt’s quiet Australian voters have swung elections
Definitive new election booth data has singled out the most volatile Leichhardt voters who candidates definitely do not want to p*** off.
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DEFINITIVE new election booth data has singled out the most volatile Leichhardt voters who candidates definitely do not want to p*** off.
They are the temperamental Far Northerners whose unpredictable polling habits make them the most dangerous voters in the region.
They also make them the quiet Australians who can make or break an election campaign.
The Cairns Post has secured the same comprehensive election data the major parties pore over before deciding where their pork-barrelling efforts will yield the best bang for buck.
It breaks down Leichhardt to each of its individual booths – there were 48 in the last election – to discover clues about the approaching campaign.
Six booths emerged as the biggest swingers in the electorate.
Mooroobool, White Rock, Manunda, Kuranda, Hope Vale and Coen had the most mercurial constituents who swapped between Labor and the Coalition depending on the year.
These switch-hitter booths are where Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, Labor candidate Elida Faith and other political hopefuls should pay particular attention over the coming months.
Rusted-on booths where voting habits never change can almost be called before votes have even been counted – but volatility wins elections.
Take White Rock as a case in point.
The 1633 voters in that booth have changed their vote three times in the past six elections – including going against the grain to back Labor in the most recent two.
History showed it was a Liberal win in both cases, but politicians are very aware it only takes a few volatile booths to create an upset.
The federal government has thrown bits and pieces to these hair-trigger locations in recent years, but there is definitely scope for both sides of the political fray to do more.
White Rock and Manunda have had slim pickings but federal money has been flowing for Mooroobool.
The suburb received $360,000 of footpath works in 2020, $1m for the Cairns Men’s Shed, another million-dollar contribution towards a women’s shelter, $418,500 to upgrade the Cairns Cycling Club clubhouse, and new CCTV cameras installed.
Unsurprisingly, voters painted the seat blue in 2019.
The Coalition will hope its $190m contribution to Stage 2 Peninsula Development Rd upgrades in recent years will lock down the vote in Hope Vale, which voted LNP last time, and Coen – which backed Labor.
However, a huge opportunity to lock down the Kuranda vote is going unanswered.
Neither side of politics has made a commitment to finally fix Tablelands access.
Advance Cairns is pushing for a $21m federal commitment this year for a preliminary evaluation and business case to plan for duplication of the Kuranda Range road.
A recent stream of delays and traffic standstills due to crashes, landslides and hazards on the road mean the issue will be fresh in every Tableland voter’s mind.
There was one more little-known addition on the Quiet Australians list – voters in a “special hospital” booth which takes in multiple small health facilities and nursing homes.
Its inclusion suggests the older demographic is just as capable of switching teams depending on the election.
As always, it will be a juggling show for everyone involved.
The parties have to make tough decisions to keep stalwart booths happy, win over dissenters and woo those volatile few who could push them across the line.
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Originally published as How Leichhardt’s quiet Australian voters have swung elections
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