Decisive week for Finland, Sweden as NATO decisions loom

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a swift turnaround in Finnish and Swedish public opinion in favour of NATO membership

Finland and Sweden are expected to announce this week whether to apply to join NATO following Russia's Ukraine invasion, in what would be a stunning reversal of decades-long non-alignment policies. 

The Nordic nations have been rattled by Moscow's war against its pro-Western neighbour, which has bolstered domestic support for joining the military alliance -- and the security that membership would provide. 

Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine has also led to a swift turnaround in Finnish and Swedish public opinion in favour of NATO membership, which until recently had little backing.

Public opinion has also surged in Sweden, albeit to lower levels, with around half of Swedes now in favour.

Sweden's ruling Social Democratic Party said Monday it would announce its position on the NATO issue on May 15. A favourable stance would provide a clear parliamentary majority for an application.

Traditionally accustomed to lengthy consensus-building debates on major issues, Sweden has been caught off-guard by Finland's swift turnaround.

- 'Perfect timing' -

But Moscow's mounting warnings about the "political and military" consequences appear only to have strengthened Finland's and Sweden's resolve.

And the alliance would move in right next door. Finnish membership would double NATO's land border with Russia to around 2,600 kilometres (1,615 miles).

"From a risk perspective, the timing is perfect", Braw said. "Russia is so busy elsewhere, it would be very hard for Russia to respond militarily."

According to Finnish daily Iltalehti, a committee made up of the president, prime minister and four other cabinet ministers is to meet Sunday to make the country's final decision.

- Exercises -

With a professional army of 12,000, another 21,000 conscripts per year and a wartime force of 280,000 troops -- in addition to powerful artillery and around 60 fighter jets -- Finland's military might is impressive for a country of just 5.5 million people.

During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for guarantees from Moscow that it would not invade. Sweden meanwhile has long maintained a policy of neutrality during conflicts, dating back to the Napoleonic wars.

"It is a huge shift in public opinion and in the political decision. But militarily it wouldn't be, simply because they are already closely linked to NATO," Shaw said.

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Originally published as Decisive week for Finland, Sweden as NATO decisions loom