Video: Smash Delta reveals horror worst-case COVID-19 scenarios for NSW
Startling new figures reveal close to 680 people in NSW could die from COVID-19 in the next month if strict social distancing laws weren’t followed. See Smash Delta’s alarming new data here.
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About 680 people could die from COVID-19 in NSW over the next month if strict social distancing measures weren’t followed, exclusive data has revealed.
The startling new figures also show more than 25,000 people could be hospitalised with coronavirus infection rates soaring to about 191,000 under worst-case scenarios.
Sydney data strategy firm Smash Delta, which has worked on state government projects, crunched the numbers to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalisation rates.
They used three different social distance scenarios - none (worst-case), some (mild adherence) and strict enforcement, when only frontline healthcare workers and essential service employees kept travelling to their jobs.
Using sources including the World Health Organisation and the Centre for Disease Control, Smash Delta’s managing director Ben Morley-John said the potential growth of the virus was “alarming”.
“I think particularly for the low adherence scenario, the numbers are always staggering and surprising,” Mr Morley-John said.
Under the new modelling, if NSW residents adhered to strict social distancing, in 30 days the coronavirus could claim 208 lives and 2300 people would be hospitalised.
Mr Morley-John said the incubation period for coronavirus, which was up to 14 days, was also a danger.
“Other viruses have shorter incubation periods so people can understand the immediacy of the threat, whereas in this situation, people can wander around for up to 14 days, spreading it unknowingly," he said.
“I think that's something that is hard to kind of get your head around, because the threat doesn't feel as immediate.”