Roadmap to Recovery: How COVID-19 restrictions could be lifted
Australia’s top universities have provided the Federal Government with a ‘Roadmap to Recovery’, showing two main paths that could be taken to lift the COVID-19 lockdown.
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Coronavirus restrictions should be lifted in batches with a three week pause between each new change to check whether the lifting of restrictions has fuelled spread of the virus, Australia’s leading universities have said.
A major report on COVID-19 recovery from Australia’s leading Group of Eight universities called the ‘Roadmap to Recovery’ has been provided to the Federal Government.
It says Australia has two options as it tries to recover from the COVID-19 crisis: Eliminate the illness, or, controlled adaptation which entails controlling the spread of the virus while society adapts to ongoing infections.
University of Adelaide public health expert Professor Tracy Merlin led the group which made 14 recommendations that would help make controlled adaptation work.
“Controlled Adaptation has its risks – outbreaks can still happen – but without a vaccine, or knowing when one will come, eliminating the spread of the virus will be difficult and there are economic impacts from the restrictions to consider,” she said.
Professor Merlin warned that until a vaccination for COVID-19 was available, restrictions on international and intrastate travel would need to remain.
“For other containment measures we are recommending that restrictions be lifted in batches, with a pause of a minimum of three weeks in between, to determine the impact on spread and case numbers,” she said.
Controlled adaptation must be supported by extensive testing and surveillance, rapid, effective case detection, case isolation and contact tracing of the majority of cases, she said.
The Elimination strategy would lead to fewer total infections, hospitalisations and deaths, and once achieved, would allow for a faster relaxation in social distancing and other restrictions.
However, Australia would likely have to continue the lockdown in certain jurisdictions beyond mid-May, possibly for another 30 days, the report said.
It would involve waiting for new local cases to fall to zero, and then maintaining this for two incubation periods, about two weeks before lifting restrictions.
“The number of asymptomatic carriers in Australia is not known and may pose a potential risk to this strategy,” the report said.
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The report says some form of technological tracing is necessary to control spread of the virus. The government this week released a coronavirus tracing app.
International travel bans will have to for the next six months and any returning essential travellers be subject to the quarantine restrictions.
“If some countries have their epidemics under control in a manner same as ours, then our Government may explore establishing a special bilateral travel understanding,” the report said.
Originally published as Roadmap to Recovery: How COVID-19 restrictions could be lifted