Covid NSW: Experts believe Covid has spread across the state twice as fast as officially recorded

Officially one in eight people in NSW have had Covid, but experts believe it is probably closer to one in four. Saturday morning’s numbers reveal 2693 patients are in hospital with the virus.

While one in eight people in NSW have now officially had Covid, experts believe the virus has infected more than one-quarter of the state.

On Saturday 13,354 new Covid infections were reported and 49 deaths with 2,693 patients now in hospital. This includes 186 people in ICU, of which 73 require ventilation.

However, Professor Terry Nolan, Head of Vaccine and Immunisation Research Group at the Doherty Institute, said infections are at least double the official numbers because asymptomatic Covid is common

“The likely infection rate is something between two and five times what is being ascertained through testing. A very, very high number of people will be asymptomatic or have trivial symptoms and won’t be included in the counts because they are not self-testing or presenting for a test,” Prof Nolan said.

Premier Dominic Perrottet announcing back to school transport plans at Wynyard Park on Friday. Picture: Dylan Robinson

According to the latest data from NSW Health, ­unvaccinated people are 10 times more likely to end up in intensive care compared to those vaccinated.

There were 175.3 unvaccinated patients per million of population in intensive care in NSW hospitals as of January 27 compared with just 17.6 patients per million who were double vaccinated.

Although the vaccinated now make up a higher percentage in hospital, the fact that 93.9 per cent of the population over 16 are double vaccinated, the 6.1 per cent who are not vaccinated represent a much higher proportion of their cohort.

There were 1506.5 unvaccinated patients per million hospitalised compared with 303 double vaccinated per million in hospital as of January 27.

The daily average of Covid cases was 18,471 last week, down from 25,701 the week before.

As of Friday, 36.4 per cent of children aged 5-11 had ­received one dose and 78.3 per cent of 12-15-year-olds were fully vaccinated.

As children prepare to ­return to school next week, NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant warned of an ­imminent spike in cases.

The Doherty Institute is currently working on modelling for the government to ­estimate the impact of school return.

Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant on Friday.

NSW Health Deputy Secretary Susan Pearce.

NSW Teacher’s Federation president Angelo Gavrielatos said teachers were concerned.

“We are bracing ourselves for an inevitable disruptive start to the year,” he said.

“There’s a lot of anxiety and concern.”

Infectious diseases paediatrician Professor Robert Booy said delaying school was only going to put-off the inevitable.

“The great majority of schools will cope, the majority will have fewer than 10 per cent absentee rates in teachers and students,” Dr Booy said.

Dominic Perrottet holding the well-spaced outdoor update on Friday. Picture: Dylan Robinson

“There will be exceptions where schools need to close down for a few days or a week but in my view it will be an exception.”

In the UK and the US, where school has already ­resumed, cases are on the rise.

“There is always a surge when children go back to school, in all viruses, Covid will spread more but I don’t think it will be an issue for more than a couple of weeks. I expect by the fourth week the number of Covid cases in schools will be declining,” Prof Booy said.

Covid related paediatric hospitalisations in the US are at the highest level since the start of the pandemic and in the UK paediatric admissions rose three-fold in two weeks in January.

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