Victoria’s Covid Delta peak to hit higher number than NSW

Victoria’s Delta outbreak is set to peak at a higher rate of new infections than NSW - and geography is one of the main factors why.

Covid case numbers have continued to increase in Victoria with that state’s outbreak set to peak at a higher rate of new infections than NSW.

There were 950 new cases reported in Victoria on Wednesday, the highest number for that state ever in the pandemic. The state reported seven deaths.

The results came from 61,322 tests.

As case numbers continue to climb in Victoria, the NSW outbreak appears to be on the decline.

But Deakin University Epidemiologist Catherine Bennett was hopeful the speed at which case numbers are increasing in Victoria will continue to slow.

The highest number of daily infections in NSW is so-far 1,603 – reported on September 11.

Victorian infections have surpassed NSW case numbers for two-days running, on Monday and Tuesday.

Despite Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews imposing some of the harshest lockdown measures in the country, the state is set to reach a rolling seven-day average of 1960 cases per day by October 25 — according to Burnet Institute modelling.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews speaks at the daily Covid press update at the Treasury Theatre in Melbourne on September 27. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

The modelling shows infections then beginning to decline.

Prof Bennett said the “rapid growth” in the early stages of the outbreak suggested “restrictions in place in Victoria weren’t working as well (as in NSW)”.

But she said the concentration of cases in western and southwestern Sydney benefited NSW, compared to Victoria where cases are more spread out.

“While there are strong restrictions in Western Sydney. I guess it’s harder to have good compliance at a whole city or state level,” she said.

Burnet Institute modelling prepared for the NSW government predicted cases in local government areas of concern would peak at a seven-day average of about 1,500 new infections a day, in mid-September.

Professor Catherine Bennett believes restrictions in Victoria are not working as well as in NSW.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian has been hesitant to declare that NSW has reached the peak of infections but analysts have projected cases will continue to fall.

University of Melbourne Research fellow Chris Billington has estimated NSW’s “R-effective” — the rate at which Covid spreads — is now at 0.85. The same researcher has estimated Victoria’s R-effective is 1.31, meaning cases will continue to increase.

The percentage of positive swabs in Victoria is significantly higher than in NSW.

The 950 cases reported by Victoria on Wednesday came from 61,300 tests – with 1.55 per cent of tests coming back positive.

The test positivity rate on Tuesday was 1.75 per cent, and 1.38 per cent.

Significantly more tests are being reported each day in NSW; on Tuesday, 0.65 per cent of tests came back positive. That figure was 0.84 per cent on Monday.

Prof Bennett said that the speed at which case numbers are increasing is slowing down, but the growth appears more dramatic due to the high number of infections.