Covid Australia: Push for 90% vaccination rate to prevent deaths

Experts are pushing for a higher vaccination rate than 80 per cent before opening up as modelling shows thousands of cases will still transmit the virus, leading to more deaths.

Experts warn we should be aiming for a 90 per cent vaccination rate for Covid-19 instead of the 70 and 80 per cent strategies set out in the national plan.

Doherty Modelling shows that, even with 80 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated, there will still be an estimated 9669 hospital admissions, 2075 in ICU and 1281 deaths, including 29 children, in the first six months out of lockdown with established community transmission of the Delta strain.

The modelling shows the difference between a 70 per cent vaccination rate and an 80 per cent vaccination rate would save an estimated 702 lives in the first 180 days.

Experts believe we will need to reach a 90 per cent vaccination rate. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Jeremy Piper

At 70 per cent fully vaccinated, the modelling estimates 1983 deaths in the first six months out of lockdown.

The modelling also estimates 45 of those deaths would be in unvaccinated children under the age of 16.

At an 80 per cent fully vaccinated rate, the estimated death rate drops to 1281 people, with 29 of those children under the age of 16.

Additional, updated modelling shows the importance of maintaining track, trace isolation and quarantine (TTIQ) with an estimated total of 1457 deaths for 70 per cent vaccinated with partial TTIQ and 761 deaths with 80 per cent vaccination rate.

Professor Terry Nolan, paediatrician and head of Vaccine and Immunisation Research Group at the Doherty Institute said we needed to aim higher than 80 per cent to minimise the deaths predicted.

“People, including governments need to raise their ambitions. For children we have got used to aiming for 95 per cent (vaccination rate for all vaccines),” Prof Nolan said.

Professor Terry Nolan from the Doherty Institute says we need to aim higher than an 80 per cent vaccination rate.

“Ninety per cent is what the real target should be, 80 per cent is an artificial number in the sense it is the minimum threshold, in all the assumptions, to have some sort of reasonably tolerable impact on the health system and the number of deaths that will appear on the front pages of the newspapers.

“The NSW Premier (Gladys Berejiklian) has started to introduce the 90 per cent words, 80 per cent is reasonable enough target but, given Delta, it’s not going to be enough.

“When you remove the gloss, they modellers haven’t lied, even at 80 per cent you are still just scraping the bar without having very severe public health measures and there is a big caveat that says this assumption only works if you have contract track and trace, isolation and quarantine and you cannot have that if the system is swamped with big numbers.

“We are talking hundreds, maybe thousands of deaths.”

Professor Marylouise McLaws, epidemiologist and Covid Adviser to the World Health Organisation said the Doherty Model underestimates the worst case scenario.

Professor Marylouise McLaws advised the WHO on Covid. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

“I think the community needs to brace itself for more deaths, absolutely,” Prof McLaws said.

Children aged 12-15 have now been approved for vaccination as of last Monday.

According to NSW Health there are currently five children aged under 18 in ICU, two of those under the age of nine.

“Why wouldn’t you vaccinate children who can be protected from a vaccinatable disease?,” Prof McLaws said.

“An 80 per cent vaccination rate will not cut it. If all you are trying to do is protect people from hospitalisation and death then a 70 per cent may improve the run on the health system and death but it is not going to prevent transmission.

“We need to aim for 95 per cent.”

A recent survey by the Australian National University found 94 per cent over 18 were already or willing to get vaccinated.

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