Coronavirus NSW: Leaked data reveals NSW lockdowns have spared 700 lives

It is the secret NSW Health modelling that convinced Premier Gladys Berejiklian to forge ahead with tough lockdown measures or face thousands being infected with a rapidly-spreading virus.

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Secret state government modelling has revealed coronavirus would have claimed as many as 700 lives by today had NSW not forged ahead with tougher lockdown measures.

And another 35,000 people throughout NSW would have been infected with COVID-19 had pubs, clubs and schools remained open past mid-March.

The NSW Health data examined the number of people that would have been infected between March 9 to April 15 if Premier Gladys Berejiklian had not pushed ahead with more ­aggressive measures.

While bans on mass gatherings and self-isolation rules for international travellers implemented on March 16 contributed to flattening the curve, the modelling shows the then-18 per cent per day growth rate plunged to less than 1 per cent after the stricter measures were rolled out on March 23.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian speaks to the media during a press conference in Sydney. Picture: AAP

The tougher measures, adopted by National Cabinet on March 22, included closing schools except for children of essential workers and the shutdown of non-essential businesses.

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Health officials attribute these measures — together with the vast majority of NSW residents embracing the stay-at-home plea — with case numbers remaining below 3000.

This is despite 2647 passengers aboard the Ruby Princess being allowed to disembark in Sydney on March 19 — a decision that led the state government to subsequently ban anybody from leaving a cruise ship.

An Israeli tourist was fined by NSW Police for failing to observe COVID-19 regulations and being too slow to move on. Picture: Matrix

However, the latest modelling is still a far cry from the NSW Health predictions made in early March, when the state government was being told that up to 1.6 million people in NSW could be infected in the first wave of the outbreak, with as many as 80,000 patients requiring intensive care simultaneously.

The dire outlook is understood to have prompted Ms Berejiklian to break from National Cabinet and go it alone.

The ADF and NWS Police maintain lockdown of returned travellers at the Sofitel in Sydney. on Good Friday. Picture: Matrix

While that attitude attracted criticism at the time, the latest modelling has validated the approach, with Health NSW officials understood to be happy with how NSW residents have responded.

In NSW, the number of cases reported daily is declining, with the total number of infections sitting at 2946 with 26 deaths.

But while the measures have “flattened the curve”, Ms Berejiklian and Prime Minister Scott Morrison now face the impossible choice of what do beyond the current suppression phase.

The options include trying to eradicate the virus with a longer lockdown that would further cripple the economy or embracing a management approach where restrictions are eased to preserve jobs, with the trade-off being more infections — and lives.

Bondi Beach remained closed this weekend. Picture: AAP

Eradication would require all states and territories to work together, with international borders remaining closed, although interstate travel could be allowed.

Some experts say this option would mean many more months of restrictions and even longer bans on foreign travel.

Those pushing for a management approach argue that a loosening of restrictions could occur now that hospitals have beefed up capacity, so long as some social distancing measures remain in place and outbreaks are aggressively tackled as they occur.

NSW has a capacity of 1000 ICU beds and the plan would be to keep the numbers of serious cases below that level.

Residents at an apartment building in Darling Point sing together during Lockdown on Easter Sunday evening. Picture: Jeremy Piper

The state government is so far taking a conservative approach, last week resisting pleas from Mr Morrison to get classrooms back to full capacity.

With no country yet having determined an end game and with no vaccine yet on the table, it appears social distancing will remain the “new normal” for some time yet.

“It’s a horrible choice between those two options,” a source said.