Australia should expect lockdowns, restrictions to continue despite rising vaccinations

Lockdowns and restrictions are predicted to be remain part of Australian life, despite rising vaccine numbers, experts have warned.

Snap lockdowns and restrictions could continue to be part of Australian life despite rising vaccination numbers, experts have warned.

And herd immunity is unlikely to be achieved in the near future due to new virus variants and anti-vaxxer hysteria, according to the Burnet Institute.

As a result, public health initiatives such as mask wearing, social distancing and circuit breaker lockdowns – as seen in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia – could become the norm, researchers have warned.

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Victorians enjoy their first Sunday out and about after the latest lockdown. Source: NCA NewsWire/Luis Ascui

Even if vaccine coverage reached 80 per cent in Australia, Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard has cautioned against life going back to normal straight away.

“You can’t just say, ‘We’re vaccinated, let it rip, guys,’” Ms Hellard told the ABC.

“There will be occasions where we will need to be aware that we need to be tested and we’d still need restrictions.”

More lockdowns expected to come

Statistics show more lockdowns should be expected in Australia until the vaccination rate improves and hotel quarantine leaks are stopped.

“Since November, we’ve had an average of one quarantine leak every 11 days, and that’s continuing,” Burnet Institute epidemiologist Mike Toole said

“They will keep happening.”

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People line up to receive their Covid-19 vaccinations at the NSW Health Vaccination hub in Sydney. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

Professor Toole said there could be as many as 10 more lockdowns and quarantine leaks.

Ms Hellard said the Federal Government’s goal to vaccinate 80 per cent of the Australian population would be a challenge, with 30 per cent of people expressing their resistance to getting the jab.

Vaccination the key to ending lockdowns

Epidemiologist Dr Emma Miller, of Flinders University, said the key to reducing the potential for future outbreaks and preventing further lockdowns was getting more of the population vaccinated.

“There is no magic silver bullet that’s going to take care of this; everything is going to depend on vaccination, on getting as high levels as we can achieve,” Dr Miller said.

According to the Department of Health, more than 5.8 million vaccine doses have been administered across the country to date.

The Australian Government has made an urgent order for more Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, however, most of the vaccines won’t arrive until the end of the year.

Updated health guidelines in the US mean fully vaccinated people don’t have to isolate after travelling overseas or interstate.

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In the US now, if you are fully vaccinated you don’t have to isolate after travelling. Picture: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP

However back home, there are currently no exceptions for those who have had both vaccine doses.

Immunology professor Cassandra Berry, of Murdoch University said it was not clear whether Australians saw the benefits of getting fully vaccinated.

“Fully vaccinated people don’t need to quarantine [in the US],” Professor Berry said.

“So, if people [in Australia] got that message, if they were fully vaccinated, they may still have their freedom and not need to go into isolation.”

But according to modelling from the Burnet Institute, thousands of Australians could die even in the case of a small outbreak in a vaccinated community, if public health measures were removed.

A dreary day in Melbourne during the city’s fourth lockdown. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sarah Matray

“We found that if the virus enters the community when 60 per cent vaccine coverage has been reached and is left unchecked, we could see 4885 deaths in Victoria within a year if no public health responses are introduced,” Dr Nick Scott said.

“If we get peak vaccination coverage up to 95 per cent, the number of deaths reduces to 1346.”

Originally published as Australia should expect lockdowns, restrictions to continue despite rising vaccinations