Former Idol host James Mathison faces uphill battle to unseat sitting MP Tony Abbott in Warringah
IT’S a bold move by TV presenter James Mathison to try and topple Tony Abbott at the election. While he thinks it will pay off it’s going to be a massive battle.
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HE USED to present a breakfast TV show from the Manly boardwalk, on Sydney’s ritzy northern beaches. Now he wants to become the local MP.
But just as Channel Ten’s Wake Up struggled in the ratings against its fierce rivals on other networks it will be an uphill struggle if the show’s one-time host, James Mathison, is to unseat former Prime Minister Tony Abbott on home turf in one of Australia’s safest seats.
On Monday, Mathison conceded to 2 Day FM’s Rove and Sam that winning the seat of Warringah at the July 2 poll was no shoo-in.
“It’s a big battle. It’s been done before, it’s a huge task, but we know it’s possible.”
If the independent Mathison manages to kick out the man who was PM only months ago it would be a poll shock remembered alongside John Howard’s end to his political career when. In 2007, former ABC News presenter and Labor candidate Maxine McKew humiliated Howard by booting him out of his seat as Kevin Rudd swept to victory.
But, experts have told news.com.au, “It’s not going to happen”. A political rival has questioned why Mathison, a former Australian Idol host, is standing at all, speculating it could be part of a plan to up his profile.
HOLD ABBOTT TO ACCOUNT
On the weekend, Mathison became perhaps the most famous face to throw his hat in the election ring. His platform is undoubtedly progressive, with Mathison’s support of marriage equality and stronger climate change measures, at odds with Abbott’s views. He was also recently in the headlines after he was dragged away by police during a protest to prevent the felling of tress for Sydney’s new light rail system.
However, Mathison thinks it’s on local issues that he’ll skewer the former PM. “When I saw Tony Abbott do his campaign launch and he promised better transport, improved biodiversity, Brookvale Oval getting upgraded, I was like, hang on, he said that three years ago when he was running for election, he said that 10 years ago, he said that 15 years ago, he’s been promising the same things over and over and I thought somebody had to hold this guy to account.”
When questioned by news.com.au, a spokesman for Abbott did not address the accusations directly.
“Mr Abbott hopes to retain the trust of the people of Warringah at this election and if re-elected looks forward to representing them for the duration of the next parliament,” the spokesman said.
ABBOTT’S VOTE WILL FALL
The mountain Mathison has to climb is monumental. Abbott has held the seat since 1994, he managed to clinch 60 per cent of the vote at the last election and it would take a swing of 15 per cent to unseat him.
But hope springs eternal. “It’s entirely possible. If we can get 10-15 per cent of people away from him we can topple him,” Mathison told Rove and Sam on Monday.
The key would be to drag Abbott’s vote below 50 per cent meaning preferences could decide the outcome. If Mathison could harness the second choices of the seat’s other contenders — including Labor and the Greens — he could be in with a chance.
It’s an interesting thought, David Briggs, managing director of Galaxy Research, told news.com.au.
Indeed, it’s almost certain Abbott’s vote will take a dive at the next election.
“I would expect the primary vote for Tony Abbott to fall for two reasons — because he is no longer prime minister and because every national poll says there will be a swing against the government.”
Nevertheless, Mr Briggs said Abbott was unlikely to be losing sleep now Mathison has put himself on the ballot.
“The chances of him toppling Tony Abbott would be very low. While Abbott is no longer leader of the Liberals I’d still expect his vote to hold up sufficiently well to get him over the line.”
Independent candidates can topple sitting MPs from major parties. Witness Cathy McGowan who sensationally beat the Liberals’ Sophie Mirabella in the Victorian border seat of Indi in 2013.
But they were usually highly regarded in the local community and had longstanding support, said Mr Briggs.
LONG SHOT
“All that will happen is the anti-Abbott voters will split among Labour, the Greens and James Mathison,” he said. And there was no guarantee preferences would flow Mathison’s way, with 20 per cent of Green voters actually putting the Liberals second.
But there was a bigger problem for Mathison. “You can’t just say I’m on the TV, especially as his past TV appearances would reflect a fairly narrow part of the population.”
Younger people might prefer Mathison but capturing 15 — 20 per cent of Abbotts’ primary vote would suggest every single younger voter opting for Mathison, which was unrealistic.
Even though Nathan Thomas, a resident of Cremorne, also wants shot of Abbott, he doubted Mathison was the man to do it.
“It’s an incredible long shot. I don’t think he’s got a chance to win the seat,” he told news.com.au.
Mr Thomas is the convener of the People of Warringah campaign that is pushing for a strong independent to stand against Abbott.
“I think it’s great anybody puts their hand up and he broadly seems to be quite a progressive and shares our view that Tony Abbott is neglecting his local electorate.”
He agrees Mathison could attract the younger vote but not enough take the seat. Rather, his preferences will be crucial to drag Abbott’s primary vote down. His preferences might then pass to another party, such as Labour or the Greens, who could mount a challenge.
“It’s highly likely Abbott will win, but if the electorate gets behind progressive candidates it’s game on in Warringah.”
‘I’M NOT SURE MATHISON DOES’
Mathison also has to contend with a burgeoning field of rivals in Warringah including the Nick Xenophon’s Team Marie Rowland.
She dismissed the pulling power of Mathison.
“If he had this fab role, like Maxine McKew did as the Lateline anchor who then crossed over to Labour, but I’m not sure what Mr Mathison does with his time.
“Yes he’s a celebrity. Perhaps he’s looking for another public role?” she pondered.
Ms Rowland was also none too impressed by Mathison’s remarks this weekend that Nick Xenophon was “hugely powerful” as an independent voice in politics.
“Is he not aware there is a Nick Xenophon Team candidate running in Warringah?”
Her experience as a business person and long-time connection to the area would get her over the line, she told news.com.au.
Mathison seems unfazed. “There is a sentiment that you can awaken a sleeping giant of people who don’t care about politics, people who think their voice doesn’t matter and I think we can do that here.”
Originally published as Former Idol host James Mathison faces uphill battle to unseat sitting MP Tony Abbott in Warringah
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