Terry McCrann: ABS figures sound relatively good but they’re fake
ABS data says the jobless rate was just 7.5 per cent in the first two weeks of July; Roy Morgan’s figure was 12.5 per cent through July. But the real figure was actually closer to 16.5 per cent, writes Terry McCrann.
Terry McCrann
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The official fake jobless numbers showed the number going up — just — in July; From 7.4 to 7.5 per cent, just topping the million-person mark.
In fact, the real jobless numbers actually improved in the period covered by the fake ABS data in the period up to the first two weeks of last month, as the lifting of the national lockdown started to boost the economy.
The real jobless numbers then improved still further through the rest of July, as shown by the official Roy Morgan Research data.
Except that is, for Victoria, as that state with one quarter of the national economy and population started to move back into its own self-created all-on-its-own even more savage lockdown.
That will play out in worse — national — jobless numbers in both the next set of fake data from the ABS for the first two weeks of August and the real (more timely, more reliable and more meaningful) official numbers from Morgan through to the end of August.
The ABS says the jobless rate was just 7.5 per cent in (the first two weeks) of July. Morgan says it was 12.5 per cent through July. I say it was “about” 16.5 per cent in the first two weeks and probably a little better but still horrendous towards the end of the month.
The difference between my number and the Morgan number is that I include one million of the 3.5 million “employed” under JobKeeper as effectively, really, unemployed.
That’s my “guesstimate” of the number that would have been sacked but for JobKeeper — and in all probability will be sacked, either progressively as JobKeeper is scaled back or when it is ended in March (if it is).
The difference between both mine and Morgan’s number and the fake ABS data is that we include as jobless those who have just given up and left the workforce since the government lockdown kicked in at the end of March.
The fake ABS numbers treat these people who are really jobless in the same way it has always treated them — as not wanting to work and so therefore not jobless.
Hmm. It probably is really hard for a bureaucrat sitting in a cosy taxpayer job in an ivory tower in Canberra to understand that if you are a worker in hospitality in Melbourne, you might actually want a job, but see no real point going around knocking on closed restaurant and cafe doors looking for one right now for some unaccountable reason.
Anyway, in the real world, on my numbers the real jobless rate at the time of the fake ABS data was not that utterly ridiculous 7.5 per cent figure but more like 16.5 per cent. That was an improvement on the 18 per cent or so in June.
Then there are those who while officially employed and so “not jobless” are underemployed because they want more hours.
The ABS says they add to 11.2 per cent. So jobless plus underemployed add to 18.7 per cent of the Australian working population. My comparative number would be closer to 25 per cent.
Either way that adds to a lot of financial and human pain around Australia. And thanks to Victoria it is going to get worse into September.
One big message to Canberra: get off the back of anyone on JobSeeker until you stop making it illegal to run a business and for people to work.
Originally published as Terry McCrann: ABS figures sound relatively good but they’re fake