‘The Americans are doing nothing’: US abandons Australia over Chinese warship ‘catastrophe’

Australia was dealt a truly horrifying blow this week – and America’s response has told us everything we really need to know.

COMMENT

When three little Chinese ships sailed down the east coast of Australia, few imagined the mighty victory that they were about to achieve.

After all, what kind of harm could a lowly frigate, a cruiser and a resupply ship do by themselves?

As it turns out, quite a lot.

Not in terms of military destruction, but if we measure it in terms of our defensive credibility, it is a catastrophe.

Nuclear-armed?

Of the three Chinese ships, the most worrisome is the Renhai-class Cruiser Zunyi, which can be equipped with nuclear-capable land-attack cruise missiles.

From where the little “flotilla” was sitting a few days ago off Southern NSW, it could have hypothetically destroyed Canberra and Sydney in under an hour. Brisbane too in a little longer.

It could have hypothetically destroyed Canberra and Sydney in under an hour. Picture: Supplied

Authorities only became aware of the danger after a commercial airline pilot radioed it in.

Our response has been weak-kneed and slow, and we have had to rely upon the great New Zealand navy to keep up the monitoring.

To describe this as an embarrassing exposure of our naked defences doesn’t say it.

Gunboat diplomacy

One does not need to be so dramatic to be concerned. The main point being made by Beijing is as much political as it is military.

That point is easy enough to read: do what we say or you will be destroyed. The manner of the message is also clear. Get out of the Taiwan Strait or we’ll occupy the Tasman Strait.

This is an age-old tactic of warfare known as “gunboat diplomacy”. When you can sail missiles unmolested to within minutes of a competing nation’s capital, there is not much need to fire them.

You can just ask whatever you like, then sail away, job done.

The Defence Department has released more pictures of the Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea, which have now moved back into Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone and are roughly 300km east of Hobart. Picture: Australian Defence Force

So much for ANZUS

Where is America in all of this? Donald Trump is otherwise distracted in Europe, Russia and Ukraine.

The Americans are doing nothing, expecting us to take care of ourselves against the three little boats. Sadly, China just illustrated we are unable to do so.

Sure, if this situation were to escalate into a major confrontation, Washington may send us some help.

But that raises the question of price.

As President Trump is busy illustrating in Europe, that price is steep and rising, with the US demanding extortionate rights to Ukraine’s mineral wealth in order to not abandon it entirely.

Australia has a longer and more storied history with the US than does Ukraine, and the Pacific is its more natural sphere of influence, but these may be differences of degree not kind to the transactional Mr Trump.

The Americans are doing nothing, expecting us to take care of ourselves against the three little boats. Picture: Jim Watson/AFP

So much for AUKUS

Our much-loved deal to buy nuclear submarines some time this century also now looks rather stupid.

The nuclear boats were designed to sail the far-distant seas of North Asia, yet now they can be pinned down with just three little ships.

The three Chinese ships carry a formidable array of anti-submarine missiles and can sail around entirely unchallenged for the next 15 years anyway.

Some broad array of land-based anti-ship missiles and drones looks to be an absolute necessity in the near future.

Yet even that is pretty useless without the US navy and its nuclear umbrella in the long run.

Australia was dealt a truly horrifying blow this week – and America’s response has told us everything we really need to know. Picture: iStock

Sell Australia to Trump

The sheer haplessness of Australian defence forces this week is the most terrifying.

We have been living in a bubble of iron ore ore revenues and Canberra lies for two decades.

We had a brief moment of sanity during Covid when China demanded we end our democracy and was rebuffed as we diversified trade.

But even that warning went unheeded.

Since then, it has been back to business as usual of selling everything not bolted down to China while importing people that won’t fight for this country as well as spending as little as possible on defence.

I can’t see why America would bother honouring ANZUS given this behaviour. It’s not the Americans that are the unreliable ally; it is us.

We have been living in a bubble of iron ore revenues for two decades. Picture: prpix.com.au via Getty Images

And so, taken for granted for generations and now run by a hard-nosed America First president, the price for America coming to Australia’s aid is likely much higher than we ever imagined.

We could start paying it by dramatically increasing defence spending. But, alas, that relies on the competence of the same fools that got us here.

A better idea is to get in ahead and sell ourselves to America today, before the price is discounted against Greenland in a moment of national crisis.

God bless the 51st state.

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geopolitics and economics portal. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Originally published as ‘The Americans are doing nothing’: US abandons Australia over Chinese warship ‘catastrophe’