Expert reveals how grounded planes will affect greenhouse gas emissions
The grounding of planes and slowing of the economy will have an impact on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, but an ANU expert has revealed it is probably a lot less than you might think.
Economy
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Despite reports of the environmental side-benefits of coronavirus, including the apparent sighting of dolphins in the canals of Venice, the impact on Australian greenhouse gas emissions will not be major unless the crisis gets much worse, an ANU expert has warned.
Professor Frank Jotzo, director of the university’s Centre for Climate and Energy Policy, said most sectors of the economy had been affected by the health crisis so far were not large emitters, so the overall impact on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions would be slight.
While international aviation is a heavy emitter – responsible for two per cent of overall greenhouse gases – he said its emissions were counted separately to any individual nation’s total, so the grounding of Qantas flights would have no difference on Australia’s 2020 emissions.
He added a slowdown in domestic aviation would have some impact.
“Domestic aviation emissions in Australia are about nine million tons a year – which is just under two per cent of national greenhouse gas emissions,” Prof Jotzo said.
“If you imagine [domestic aviation] halving, just for argument’s sake, over 2020, then you’d have just under one per cent lower emissions nationally.”
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The most recent update from Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory, which covers the period up until September 2019, shows the country emitted 532.0 tons of carbon dioxide in the year leading up to June 2019, down from 532.4 tons in the 12 months leading up to June 2018. Data from the current quarter is not expected until the second half of 2020.
While there was a connection between economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, Prof Jotzo said it was not a “one to one relationship”.
“With the coronavirus recession, what has been hit hardest has been the service sectors. That results in some reductions in energy demand but not much,” he said.
“Things like construction, heavy manufacturing and energy generation have not been primarily affected – but if this turns into a deep recession, there will be a flowthrough effect.”
Asked whether the coronavirus slowdown would help Australia meet its 2030 emissions targets, Prof Jotzo said it would not have a substantial effect.
“It will put a small dent in emissions for a year or two, after which it will be back to normal,” he said.
Emissions reductions which occurred during the Global Financial Crisis turned out to be only temporary, he added, and were offset by increased emissions afterwards.
The lack of a stronger correlation between the economy and emissions was actually a positive in some ways, he said, because it showed that actions to reduce emissions were not incompatible with economic growth.
“A recession or a reduction in living standards is not what we are looking for in achieving an emissions goal or climate goal. What we are looking for is actually strong economic growth, continued improvements in economic prosperity, but with lower emissions technology. That’s the solution,” Prof Jotzo said.
“Hammering the economy really doesn’t get you very far at all.”