Barefoot Investor warns property price slump could wipe out all the Covid gains

Australians are officially the richest people on the planet but Barefoot warns that house prices could eventually give up the 30 per cent gains they made during the Covid period.

Did you know that Australians are officially the richest people on the planet?

It’s true, according to Credit Suisse’s latest annual global wealth report.

And yet it’s also true that Australians have some of the highest levels of household debt on the planet, according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

In other words, we’re rich – on paper at least – because we have high house prices.

Yet that appears to be rapidly changing, with prices now falling at one of the fastest rates on record. Nationally they’re down 4.5%, with some analysts suggesting it’s only just beginning, with predictions of much larger falls of up to 25%.

I’ve consistently argued in this column that I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices eventually gave up the 30% gains they made during the Covid period.

After all, what the Reserve Bank (RBA) giveth … by slashing interest rates to 0.1% and promising to hold them there during the pandemic … it can also abruptly taketh away. The 2.5% of hikes this year have added a massive $715 a month in extra repayments for the average borrower.

The 2.5 per cent of hikes this year have added a massive $715 a month in extra repayments for the average borrower.

That’s huge.

It’s the sort of shock to the system that drives an economy into recession.

So where to from here?

Well, a lot will depend on how far the RBA hikes. Yet the problem is that the RBA has proven to be as accurate at calling interest rates – which they set! – as my youngest boy is at peeing standing up. Despite his best aim he invariably ends up spraying it all over the walls and floors.

“You promised me you got it in the bowl!” I yell.

“Oops. Sorry Dad” he says sheepishly.

My view?

We should enjoy our win – because much like my beloved Melbourne Demons – it ain’t going to last.

Tread Your Own Path!

You Have No Backbone, Barefoot

Hi Scott,

This is the third or fourth time I have written. I appreciate your principles are sound, however every column has a feel-good news story and none of them explain the backbone of how they made something happen. I have written to you on several occasions asking about this. If someone doesn’t have a spare penny to feed their kids and is living hand to mouth.....how can they suddenly start “doing the barefoot” with different accounts? I am not thick, but I am struggling to find the obviously missing piece?

Linda

Barefoot Investor recommends people get $2000 in a Mojo account as soon as possible.

Hi Linda,

Ah, the missing piece of the puzzle.

Here’s a clue: in almost every single feel good news story they start off saying something like:

“I read your book, followed the Barefoot Steps, and then things slowly turned around for me”.

The starting point of the Barefoot Steps is to go on a date night, set up your buckets, and get $2,000 in a Mojo account as soon as possible, even if it means selling your cat on eBay.

You are being too harsh with Equifax!

Hi Scott,

I appreciate you like CreditSavvy, but I think you are being harsh on Equifax, who provide a similar (identical?) facility. And you make it sound like if Optus offered you MILLIONS, you would say “No thanks, I am a good company”. For full disclosure, I work for Equifax.

Jono

Hi Jono

Am I being too harsh with your employer Equifax?

I don’t think so. After all, in 2017 Equifax suffered one of the largest cybercrime breaches in history with the private records of 147.9 million Americans and 15.2 million Brits were compromised.

The reason I suggested people use CreditSavvy (owned by CommBank), is because they offer a free and simple way to lock down your credit file, which will stop scammers from running up credit in your name.

After years of paying for an Equifax subscription to monitor my credit file, I found a way of putting a lock on it, for free. That’s why I shared the details with my readers. It’s a good deal, especially in light of all the hacks going on. Including your own!

Help! Our Family is Breaking Apart

Hey Scott,

Six years ago my partner purchased his first home for $340,000, with his two brothers. He pitched in $26,000 along with his first homebuyer’s perks. His brothers put in $15,000 and $3,000. Since then, they have all paid the same amount each week to pay down the mortgage quicker. The house is now worth a (conservative) $800,000. The area where the house is located is on the rise, so my partner doesn’t want to sell anytime soon.

However, the brother who put in $3,000 is annoyed and wants to sell up, and thinks he is entitled to a third, despite it being obvious he isn’t. (At one stage he didn’t even make his share of the mortgage repayments for a whole year.) The whole situation is messy and stressful, and it may be what breaks the family apart. I think my partner should cut him loose and buy out his share, but what is he really entitled to?

Sharon

In a family property dispute, Barefoot recommends you should get an accountant or a conveyancer to broker a deal.

Hi Sharon,

What a mess!

You’ve just described the reason I strongly advise against going into debt with family members. Even though the investment has done great, everyone is miserable!

At the very least you need to have a written agreement right from the start.

For me, it’s ‘Bros over Ho(me)s’.

If I were in your shoes, I’d do the following:

First, I’d suggest that it’s time everyone went their separate ways with this investment.

Second, I’d commit to selling the property. I don’t care if you think it’s going higher, the fact is it’s got bad family juju (a non-financial term), and if you keep it (and buy out the others) it’ll serve as a constant reminder to them of the deal. If it goes well and the property goes up, they’ll feel they’ve missed out. And even if it goes down, they’ll still hold a grudge.

Third, I’d appoint someone independent, perhaps your parent’s accountant or a conveyancer, to broker a deal (which would include dealing gently but firmly with the entitled brother).

Lastly, don’t take your eyes off the prize: the most important asset here that needs to be protected above all else is the family relationship, not the property.

UPDATE: The $32,000 Couch

Hi Scott!

Remember me? I wrote to you a while back and you shared my story “$32,000 couch.” I wanted to update you. Not only did your advice see me lose ALL my debt but following your advice and doing the Barefoot Steps I am now getting closer and closer to buying my first house. As I write this with tears in my eyes, from the bottom of my heart I thank you! This single mum feels so capable and so excited about what more is to come. You are truly a star in my eyes.

Sandy

Scott Pape has written a companion pdf to the original book Beyond Barefoot: The Next Chapter

Hi Sandy

I remember you! Well done for following the Barefoot Steps. And it’s also the reason that I’ve written a companion pdf to the original book, Beyond Barefoot: The Next Chapter. I’ll be sending out a sneak peek on Monday for people who sign up to my email newsletter on barefootinvestor.com.

DISCLAIMER: Information and opinions provided in this column are general in nature and have been prepared for educational purposes only. Always seek personal financial advice tailored to your specific needs before making financial and investment decisions.

Information and opinions provided in this column are general in nature and have been prepared for educational purposes only. Always seek personal financial advice tailored to your specific needs before making financial and investment decisions

The Barefoot Investor for Families: The Only Kids’ Money Guide You’ll Ever Need

(HarperCollins) RRP $29.99

If you have a money question, email [e-mail].

Originally published as Barefoot Investor warns property price slump could wipe out all the Covid gains