What NSW election result could mean for Peter Dutton and federal Liberals

Labor and the Liberals are about to go head-to-head in the NSW election and experts say there are some lessons to be learnt for Liberal leader Peter Dutton.

The federal Liberals would have cause to take a more moderate approach to politics if the Coalition is returned to power at the NSW state election, experts say.

The Opposition will be keeping a close eye on next Saturday’s poll and whether the Perrottet government can at least cling to power in a predicted tight contest which could result in either Labor or the Coalition having to negotiate with the crossbench to form a minority government.

If the NSW Liberals and Nationals get turfed out after 12 years in office, the result would leave Tasmania – where an election isn’t due until 2025 – as the only jurisdiction out of nine without a Labor government.

The NSW election comes a few months after the release of the Liberals’ internal review of last year’s federal election, which found former prime minister Scott Morrison and the party were considered “out of touch” by voters across the country.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has led a government with a more progressive policy agenda than the federal Coalition. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nikki Short

Authored by former federal director Brian Loughnane and senator Jane Hume, the report found a lack of policy agenda and deteriorating support among women also contributed to the Liberal Party’s worst result since 1946.

Sydney University’s Rodney Smith, who researches NSW politics, is anticipating a hung parliament to come from next Saturday’s poll.

Professor Smith said a Coalition win was “difficult, but possible”.

He opined it would give the federal Liberals and Nationals a confidence boost and, at the same time, prompt some potentially uncomfortable discussions about their future strategy.

“It is a more moderate government,” Professor Smith says of the Liberal-National Coalition led by Dominic Perrottet.

“So the lesson may be a slightly uncomfortable one – if the Liberal Party federally doesn’t become more attuned to some of the differences between the NSW state government and the former Morrison government, for example. Those lessons will be mixed.”

The NSW state government has set itself apart from the federal Coalition in recent years by pursuing a more progressive policy agenda including setting more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and supporting the Indigenous Voice to parliament.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was snapped on the campaign trail with NSW Labor leader Chris Minns on Friday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras said the Liberals had successfully created a moderate “brand” in NSW, in contrast to their federal counterparts.

“Irrespective of the result, after 12 years in government the brand of the Perrottet government is still holding up,” said Mr Samaras, a director at Melbourne-based political research firm RedBridge Group.

“Even with the scandals that have plagued this government, it’s clear the brand they’re selling is more appealing to the broader Australian public.

“And if they win, there’s absolutely proof and evidence for that style of Liberal politics.”

Former Liberal strategist Tony Barry said the NSW Liberals had done a good job at casting a wide net, including making Mr Perrottet — a devout Catholic and a member of the party’s Conservative faction — appealing to a wide range of voters.

“They’ve been doing a lot of work on him. And as time as gone on in the job he’s looked more relatable. He’s looked more comfortable in the position,” said Mr Barry, also a director at RedBridge.

“Voters respect leaders who might be particularly religious. Kevin Rudd used to do doorstops outside church. What they don’t like is where their personal religious beliefs become a part of the policy agenda.”

Peter Dutton, who declined to comment for this article, has also been keen to reshape his image after being elected unopposed as Liberal leader when Mr Morrison – who made no secret of his Pentecostal Christian faith while he was in office – stepped down after the bruising election loss.

The pair took part in a photo opp, enjoying a beer at the Labor-heritage Unity Hall Hotel in Balmain. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

Since then the Opposition Leader been keen to remake himself in the eyes of those Australians who think of him as the tough ex-cop turned immigration and defence minister who pursued hard line policies in sensitive areas such as asylum seeker arrivals.

In his first press conference after becoming the party’s leader, Mr Dutton promised to pursue an agenda that appealed to a broad range of people in the style of traditional Liberal politics.

“Under my leadership, the Liberal Party is not … the ‘Conservative Party’, not the ‘Moderate Party’. We are Liberals – we are a broad church,” he said at the time.

“We will have policies that appeal to Australians across the board. Those Australians that believe, as I do, that we need to keep our country safe and keep the economy strong so that we can help families, help small businesses and help them grow.”

But whether Mr Dutton has successfully softened his conservative “hard man” image enough to return the Coalition to power at the next federal election remains to be seen.

The Australian National University’s Ian McAllister, who researches Australian political science, said the Liberal Party at the next federal election would face the issue of “underlying gravity”.

“There’s a gradual movement of women away from the Liberal Party. And the longer term shift of young people away from the Coalition, which is huge by electoral standards,” Professor McAllister said.

“I’d be amazed if this wasn’t being replicated at a state level.”

Peter Dutton has tried to soften his personal image after becoming Opposition Leader. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

However, Professor McAllister said it was difficult to draw direct comparisons between state and federal elections, with people tending to vote for different reasons at different levels.

“In the federal election people tend to vote on the national economy … health and education, et cetera. In state elections, it tends to be much more about localised issues,” he said.

“At the next federal election, I think a lot will hinge on the performance of the economy, given the cost of living will be more of a problem for the (Labor) government than it will be for the Coalition.”

Anthony Albanese has largely stayed away from the NSW election. He addressed Labor’s campaign launch a fortnight ago and he hit the campaign trail with Labor leader Chris Minns on Friday.

The campaign stops include a drink at the Unity Hall Pub in Balmain, in Sydney’s inner west, which lays claim to being one of the birthplaces of the Australian Labor Party.

The Prime Minister said it was “remarkable” that Mr Dutton had not joined Mr Perrottet during his campaign for re-election and claimed the federal Liberal leader’s absence was due to infighting.

“The fact that Peter Dutton hasn’t been seen now for almost six months anywhere near Dominic Perrottet says a lot about Peter Dutton, but it also says a lot about the dysfunction there is in the Liberal party,” Mr Albanese told reporters.

Mr Dutton told Sky News host Erin Molan on her show on Friday evening that ordinary Australians didn’t “give a toss” if he was there or not.

The Daily Telegraph reported that Mr Dutton made a virtual appearance at the election campaign launch of NSW treasurer Matt Kean in a video address early last week.

“We need Liberal economic management at a state and federal level like never before,” Mr Dutton reportedly told the crowd of about 350 people after apologising for not making it to the event in person.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticised his opponent’s absence from the spotlight as the NSW election approaches. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

The NSW state election isn’t the only upcoming poll the federal Liberals – and the Albanese Labor government – will be watching closely.

The following weekend, on April 1, voters in the Melbourne seat of Aston will vote in a by-election triggered by the retirement of sitting MP and former Liberal cabinet minister Alan Tudge.

That is where Mr Dutton says his focus remains. And there’s good reason for him to prove he can win on a federal level, even if just for the symbolism at this stage of the electoral cycle.

In 2001, then prime minister John Howard, under electoral stress because of the new GST, unexpectedly won the Aston by-election. And later the November federal election.

Mr Dutton will be hoping for a NSW Coalition win. But for him, a win in Aston matters more.

Originally published as What NSW election result could mean for Peter Dutton and federal Liberals