NSW election 2023: Labor could win majority government if two more Liberal seats turn red

While Labor raced to victory on Saturday, there are still a handful of seats in doubt - with one controversial MP facing the sack from voters in a major upset.

Five undecided seats will determine whether Chris Minns will govern with a majority or minority Labor government.

With counting to resume on Monday morning, Labor is hoping the electorates of Miranda, Kiama, Ryde and Terrigal – and to a lesser extent Oatley – will deliver them the extra two seats needed to make a lower house majority of 47.

In the event of a minority government, Labor will need to negotiate with minor parties and independents to pass bills. It will also give more influence to crossbenchers like Sydney MP Alex Greenwich, Lake Macquarie MP Greg Piper and the Greens, who will likely retain Newtown, Ballina and Balmain.

NSW Labor stormed to victory on Saturday night. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ David Swift

Although the previously Liberal-held seats of Camden, Goulburn, and Penrith have been called for Labor, a Liberal Party spokesman said the party had yet to concede the electorates, with “a lot of pre-poll and postal” votes still to be counted.

RedBridge Strategy and Campaigns Director, Kosmos Samaras said electorates which appear to show a slim Labor majority on Monday, will likely shift more to Liberal candidate as pre-poll and postal votes are counted.

Looking at the current list of undecided seats, Mr Samaras believes “at this stage of the count” Kiama and Terrigal are the seats Labor have the best chances of claiming.

“We do know that pre-poll and postal votes generally favour the conservative side of politivs, however it does vary from electorates,” he said.

“If the swing was particularly influenced by older voters, that theory could be turned on its head.”

Miranda

Potentially one of the biggest upsets of the state election, the southern Sydney seat has been held by former Liberal MP Eleni Petinos since 2015; however, Labor candidate Simon Earle is slightly ahead of the former fair trading minister according to first preference votes.

Ms Petinos faced a string of controversies in 2022 and was sacked from her ministries by ousted premier Dominic Perrottet due to bullying allegations.

She also caused controversy in her own electorate in 2021 when nine families in Jannali nearly lost their homes in order to create a 200-commuter carpark near Jannali station.

While the plan was scrapped, voters didn’t forget.

Eleni Petinos had her detractors in Miranda. Picture: Facebook

Eleni Petinos, formerly the Small Business Minister, was forced to give up her portfolios after bullying allegations. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

The appearance of former prime minister Scott Morrison at the polling booths on Saturday may have been a last-ditch attempt to sway voters. The federal Cook MP shared a photo of Ms Petinos and himself with former NSW attorney-general and Cronulla MP Mark Speakman alongside the caption: “Pleased to be out supporting our local Liberal Shire team today with Mark Speakman and Eleni Petinos MP #keepnswmovingforward.”

Scott Morrison pictured with former NSW attorney-general Mark Speakman and MP Eleni Petinos. Instagram.

Kiama

Another seat that has been the subject of a lot of media speculation is Kiama.

Independent MP Gareth Ward was expelled from the Liberal Party in 2021 after being charged with historical sexual abuse allegations involving a 27-year-old man and a 17-year-old boy.

The Liberal Party has already conceded the seat, which is being fought out by Mr Ward and Labor’s Katelin McInerney, who is slightly ahead.

Even if Mr Ward retains the seat, his future prospects remains uncertain. Premier-elect Chris Minns has confirmed that he will not let Mr Ward enter parliament, even if elected.

Mr Ward remains before the courts and has pleaded not guilty.

Gareth Ward could still win Kiama. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Flavio Brancaleone

Ryde

Held by former customer service minister Victor Dominello since 2008, the seat was positioned for a Labor takeover after the popular MP’s retirement.

As it stands, Labor’s Lyndal Howison is slightly ahead with 50.63 per cent of the two candidate preferred vote to Liberal candidate Jordan Lane’s 49.37 per cent. The remainder of the votes will be from pre-poll and postal vote figures.

Labor could take back Ryde after Victor Dominello’s retirement. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Ben Symons

Terrigal

In another major upset for the Coalition, the south-coast seat of Terrigal could fall out of Liberal hands for the first time since the electorate was first contested in 2007.

Previously a very safe Liberal seat on a 12.3 per cent margin, Liberal MP Adam Crouch began overtaking Labor’s Sam Boughton in the two candidate preferred (TCP) count on Monday afternoon.

Oatley

Neighbouring Kogarah, Oatley was a notable battleground seat during campaigning, with both leaders making several visits to the area. As of Monday afternoon, longtime Liberal MP Mark Coure was ahead by about 900 votes (TCP) and will likely retain the seat; however, there’s a slim chance first time candidate Ash Ambihaipahar could win it for Labor.

Originally published as NSW election 2023: Labor could win majority government if two more Liberal seats turn red