Mugabe's last stand

When former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser said "life wasn't meant to be easy'', he might well have been predicting the lot of the Zimbabwean people under dictator Robert Mugabe.

With the vote count acknowledged to have gone against the brutal African ruler, though his government shows little sign of vacating office, ordinary Zimbabweans are leading meagre lives. A friend who has stayed in the embattled nation says a single US dollar is valued at 40 million Zimbabwean dollars -- and this is after three zeros were removed in August 2006. Cash withdrawals are limited to $Z500 million ($A13.70) and if anyone is found to have more cash than this amount in their possession, it is liable to be confiscated. To say ordinary people are sick of the lack of basic commodities and the exorbitant prices they must pay for whatever is available is stating the obvious. Bread costs an average of $Z20 million per loaf; petrol -- if it can be found -- sells for around $Z70 million per litre. Because of the prohibition on holding cash reserves, motorists are forced to buy fuel in small amounts, usually less than 10 litres at a time, and make extensive plans if they aim to take a long journey. Despite this, the ridiculousness of the situation does not escape them and the irony of it is that fines for breaking the currency laws are laughably stupid. My friend says he has paid a $Z20,000 fine for having faulty reflector lights on a trailer. Although there's a quiet sense of optimism in the capital, Harare, there's been no public outburst of celebration. This is because many fear that Mugabe's spies (estimated to account for as much as one-third of the population) are still watching and taking notes. Because the results of the previous stolen and rigged elections have been announced within 24 hours, there's a great deal of speculation about what Mugabe and his cronies are now plotting. The general view is that, after 28 years in power, he's not going to walk away now unless he has no other choice, and even then will only do so after ensuring his future security is guaranteed. If he manages to maintain power, my friend says, people are afraid that the retribution (beatings) exacted on opposition figures will be so fierce that they will end up looking like zebras. The fear is well-based. After the 2002 elections there was no doubt those opposed to Mugabe's rule were killed, maimed or beaten. So-called war veterans were re-armed in case they had to enforce the leader's rule and a significant number of opposition supporters were hounded out of the country. Farms were stolen by government forces and given to sympathetic supporters. Chiefs in the ruling ZANU-PF party and Mugabe cronies selected the most prosperous farms for themselves. Few, if any, went to the very poor. Mugabe still commands almost total control of the nation. All acts of parliament must be signed by him before they are made law. There is a hope that the constitution will be amended by a new government, reducing the scope for Mugabe to enact his own will. The opposition has largely been based in towns, where the people bear the brunt of the dictator's harsh policies. In rural areas, vote-buying has helped maintain a level of support for the government. Tractors, farm implements, fertilisers, food and computers for schools (even where no power is available) were handed out in huge quantities by tribal headmen loyal to Mugabe. The headman customarily ensures that those who have received gifts vote as he directs. While the queues for bread and maize meal snake around the streets, there is speculation that ZANU-PF party officials are using delaying tactics while they destroy evidence of crimes and allow those who wish to flee to leave the country. There is also the possibility that Mugabe is hoping supporters of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai will be provoked into creating a disturbance that will enable Mugabe to declare a state of emergency. Until the situation is resolved, fear will haunt those seeking change, but that quiet air of optimism is something that's been absent for nearly 30 years.