Labor will crash, no matter who's driving

The frenzied speculation about the embattled Labor Party leadership would be side-splittingly funny if it were not for the fact that it is the prime ministership of the nation that is in contention. There is nothing in or behind the current headlines that reflects the real gravity of the situation. Kevin Rudd was the last prime minister to lead a party that actually won an election in its own right. Julia Gillard was responsible for Rudd's dismissal from that office. The Australian public did not, as Gillard attempts to claim, vote for a minority government and they most emphatically did not vote for the carbon tax, which she and her minority government partners, the Greens and independents, are now determined to inflict on the economy from July 1. Thus we have a government, which the Australian voters in no way endorsed, enacting a law, which the Australian people soundly rejected, and we see daily members of the Labor Party running around in circles talking of leadership change as a remedy to the profound loss of confidence affecting the economy. Changing one failed leader for another failed leader does not seem to be a rational solution to the problem. Though there may be some talent in the federal Labor Party (and there is no evidence of that), the fact the Gillard government has to (again) rely on threats from erratic backbenchers like Queenslander Graham Perrett to quit and trigger a by-election underscores the tenuous nature of its grasp on the levers of power and reflects on the weakness of the so-called factional bosses. That independent Rob Oakeshott once again seeks relevance as a pillar of the Gillard government's survival refreshes the memory of the reasons independents have come to be loathed and reminds the public of Gillard's most recent broken promise, to deliver anti-poker machine legislation to Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie before the May Budget. So, the public might ask what does it matter if Gillard or Rudd is at the helm if command of the ship is in the hands of fools like Perrett and Oakeshott? Or, for that matter, Greens leader Bob Brown, who wisely remains happily in the shadows because no matter which Labor figure lives in the Lodge, he is calling the shots and will continue to do so because neither Gillard nor Rudd has the courage to tell his minor party to get lost. While the Canberra Press Gallery is busily speculating about the possible timing of a Rudd challenge to Gillard's leadership such a move on Rudd's part seems unlikely. He does not need to do anything while Gillard and her staff effectively destroy themselves. The Canberra-based pack of self-anointed insiders has to talk up the leadership now because it missed the big story of Rudd's demise, despite heavy hints being given, and the gallery doesn't want to be caught again looking as silly as Labor backbencher Daryl Melham did on June 23, 2010, when he was ridiculing reports of Rudd's end even as the coup was unfolding. Unfortunately for the voters, there is not really that much beyond superficialities to differentiate Gillard's and Rudd's performances. Both lack judgment, arguably Gillard more so than Rudd, and both have filled their offices with inexperienced political theorists who have been responsible for damaging self-inflicted wounds. Rudd had his stupid, press-assistant moment courtesy of Lachlan Harris, who displayed a jarring lack of commonsense and courtesy. If there was a single moment of decision for those plotting against Rudd in 2010 it was on the day of the by-election of the NSW state seat of Penrith on June 19, a few days before the axe fell. Labor MPs manning the booths were stunned by the vehemence of the scathing character assessments offered by former Labor voters as they queued to smash the hopes of Labor candidate John Thain in what was formerly disgraced state MP Karyn Paluzzano's seat. The swing to the Liberals - 25.7 per cent on a two-party preferred basis - set a new NSW record. The views expressed of Rudd by those who delivered that result decided the waverers. Gillard has had no single momentary fall from grace, she has been in a numbing free-fall since she lost her credibility with her lie on the carbon tax. Rudd can only offer the slimmest of hopes that a switch to his leadership might provide a momentary diversion for voters. A diversion long enough for him to call an election and challenge Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, but short enough for him to keep his own failures well in the background. I suspect that voters will not give a toss who leads Labor at the next election, they have had enough of lies and leadership changes and want a break from weak, unrepresentative minority government. * * * On another matter, my fellow columnist, union boss Paul Howes last week chose to devote a column to the NSW government's mandated ethanol program. He praised Premier Barry O'Farrell for adapting the previous Labor government's policy and inferred that I was involved with the oil industry because I took an opposing view in a column published here on January 22. As history shows, the NSW government came to its senses and walked away from the position Howes praised. Further, I have not had any contact with any oil company, apart from purchasing petrol and diesel from their service stations, and did not seek comment from them before writing my column. I spoke with consumers, the NRMA and the Boating Industry Association, those who know the dangers inherent in methanol use. I was surprised at the tenor of Howes' attack because he showed no sympathy for the consumers whom I consulted, workers who pay his salary. The position I took and the figures I used were subsequently repeated by reporters from The Daily Telegraph, Channel 7 and The Sydney Morning Herald. The NSW government wisely reviewed its position and decided that it was unfair to unnecessarily slug consumers more for their fuel. As I wrote a fortnight ago, the NSW government "inherited a mad, bad and dangerous" policy. It is not surprising that the public looks askance at the trade union movement when the secretary of the AWU supports such insane policies.