Costello the MP or PM?

Former treasurer Peter Costello has the capacity to change the political landscape with his nearly completed political biography.

Although he remains firmly on the Opposition back bench and is adamant he isn't angling for a comeback, he's just as resolute in declaring that nothing in the future is either in or out. The future will be decided when his book is completed; all but the final words have been delivered to Melbourne University Press, the bipartisan publishing house run by Labor stalwart Louise Adler, the wife of actor and comedian Max Gillies. Costello may still be examining a career outside politics, but that hasn't deterred some of his colleagues _ indeed, some who weren't seen as his supporters _ in the Liberal Party from urging him to reconsider his options and stay in a leadership role. Although draft chapters of his book are under tight security while being edited, an insider has revealed two important facts that could have huge implications for the Liberal Party leadership. The first is that Costello didn't set out to write a grudge book, in the manner of former Labor opposition leader Mark Latham. The second is that he doesn't resile from his view that, 18 months before the 1996 election that propelled the Coalition into government, he was given an undertaking on inheriting the leadership from John Howard. Costello firmly believes Howard was a great prime minister, if not the best this country has had since Sir Robert Menzies. But he writes that Howard should have opted to quit before he lost his own seat and the Coalition lost government. It was, he says, a fatal error. A change to Costello would not have saved the Coalition, however, according to Australian Election Study research on the 2007 election, released last month. It found that at the time of the election, Costello was the least popular of all the party leaders. His book, co-written with his father-in-law, former NSW opposition leader and one-time Bulletin editor Peter Coleman, will no doubt be a political bestseller. But it will also serve as a handy platform that Costello could use to mount his own challenge to Brendan Nelson's leadership. It is, the insider says, ``a full and frank description of life inside the Howard government's 11 and a half years, its achievements and its failures, and is an exceptionally good read''. Most MPs leave their political memoirs until they're sure their political careers have reached an end, but Costello has opted to place on the record his role in the largely successful Howard government. In doing so, it could be argued, he could hardly undermine his leader and he certainly makes no attempt to do so. Although he states his honest belief that Howard dudded him on the leadership, he doesn't fault Howard's strengths as PM. This may have been difficult for Costello to write, but he has addressed the issue openly and without belittling Howard. Should he decide to stay in politics, this will not play badly among those Australians who returned the Coalition to office on four occasions and who, by October _ when Costello's book is due to be launched _ may well be questioning their own wisdom in changing political horses last November. The book will serve to remind them of the economic and industrial stability Australians enjoyed under the Coalition, even as confidence in Kevin Rudd's government continues to plummet. Costello's colleagues will no doubt be relieved that he hasn't tried to emulate Latham's muckraking memoir, and Labor will find it difficult to glean material to use against the current Opposition. Those hoping Costello may yet be persuaded to play a greater role in the Coalition's future are cheered by the fact that Adler has mapped out a three-week publicity campaign for the book, which she believes will be a huge seller. Although Costello will also be hoping the exercise proves profitable, it seems he's still waiting to see whether he should also make political capital from it. The book may present Costello's political credentials, but his colleagues say he will benefit whether he stays or goes. They argue, however, that he should have a go at the Coalition leadership if the public reception is favourable. They point out that an Age-Nielsen poll in June found 37 per cent of respondents preferred Costello, 29 per cent Malcolm Turnbull and 19 per cent Brendan Nelson for the leadership. Among Coalition supporters, 47 per cent backed Costello, 28 per cent Turnbull and 17 per cent Nelson. Among Labor voters, Turnbull scored 31 per cent, Costello 30 per cent and Nelson 21per cent. Former Coalition health minister Tony Abbott, who last week also announced he had begun writing a book on future directions for the Liberal Party, has said he doesn't intend his tome to be a springboard to future leadership but a philosophical lookat conservatism. One Liberal MP says there is general admiration for the manner in which Nelson has handled himself since he was elected leader and recognition for Turnbull's extraordinary talents. But he says there are questions about the public's acceptance of Nelson as a person of prime ministerial ``stature'' and whether Turnbull has shown he has the political experience necessary for the leadership. ``Peter has the experience, and the polls show the public now recognises his worth,'' one Opposition MP says. ``This book will give him a reason to engage with the public and test the waters.'' ``As the nation experiences more of Rudd's initiatives, there's a greater chance this will be one-term government. ``It would be a terrible thing for Peter to walk away, and die wondering whether he would have been prime minister if he had seized the moment.''