Map’s ominous warning for Australia

Australia could be heading for its third La Nina in a row - with one measure in particular showing how vulnerable we could be to yet more floods.

The dams are full, the streams are full, soil moisture is high in many areas and there’s an even chance Australia will get its third rainy summer in a row.

In other words: prepare for more floods.

That’s the message from the Bureau of Meteorology as Australia heads towards its traditional “danger season” – the peak time for thunderstorms, cyclones, bushfires, floods and heatwaves.

The Bureau says there is a 50 per cent chance another La Nina event - associated with wetter and cooler conditions on the east coast - could be declared by November.

That would make three in a row – grim news for fans of a long, hot summer – but back-to-back-to-back La Ninas have been recorded before, in 1954-57, 1973-76, and 1998-2001.

An ominous sign: Bureau of Meteorology maps showing Australia's soil moisture in June 2022, compared to 2021 and 2020.

According to the Bureau’s outlook, most of Queensland, NSW and Victoria, and significant parts of SA, NT and Tasmania are likely to experience above-median rainfall this Spring. The only areas likely to experience below-average rainfall are western Tasmania and northern WA.

A massive issue of concern is the level of soil moisture, as already-wet soils lead to more run-off, and then flooding.

Bureau of Meteorology maps showing the Spring outlook for Australia.

Much of eastern and northern Australia has above-average soil moisture – with more areas having more moisture than the same time in 2021.

While flooding remains the chief concern, high temperatures are likely to impact far north Queensland, the Top End and all of Tasmania.

Parts of the NT, WA and Tasmania are rated as above average fire risk for Spring.

Originally published as Map’s ominous warning for Australia