NewsBite

Bureau of Meteorology predicts a warm, dry winter ahead despite Australians feeling the cold

Australia’s eastern states have been shivering their way through some of their coldest May days in two decades. This is why. SEE THIS WEEKEND’S WEATHER

Jamie Seidel
3 min read
May 31, 2019 - 5:42PM
News Corp Australia Network
Climate change: 'Once Australia hits this point, there is no going back'

It’s been cold. Snow has tumbled on Victorian and New South Wales slopes in an early start to the season. Frosts have been coating pet water bowls across the eastern states. And getting out from under that quilt as the sun makes its pitiful appearance in the morning has been incredibly hard to do.

Parents urged to vaccinate as killer flu sets in

Hot spots where flu is out of control

‘Natural flu shot’ sign is misleading says doctor

To mark the first day of winter at Wild Life Sydney Zoo at Darling Harbour, keepers introduced their kangaroos to snow for first time. Picture: Richard Dobson
To mark the first day of winter at Wild Life Sydney Zoo at Darling Harbour, keepers introduced their kangaroos to snow for first time. Picture: Richard Dobson

And according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), yes, it has been colder, earlier, than recent trends.

But mostly at night. And not for long.

Wednesday was Melbourne’s coldest May day in 19 years, peaking at just 10.6C. Meanwhile, snow was sprinkling in Ballarat. Records tumbled in Queensland: Stanthorpe went as low as -6.9C this morning, with Applethorpe not all that far behind. In New South Wales, Glen Innes airport bottomed out this morning at -9.8C. Central Australia was also doing it tough, with Alice Springs this week getting as low as -1C and Hawker just 1C.

A dry, cold jet of air has been blasting up from the Southern Ocean during the past week. It’s now gradually ebbing away over the Tasman Sea.

And, despite the cold, dry remains the key word.

Melbourne yesterday topped 10cm of rain for the year. It’s a figure usually reached in the first week of March — a full three months earlier.

And that cold snap? It was particularly shocking as it came off the back of Australia’s warmest start to a year — ever.

A BOM spokesperson told News Corp the cause of the current cold snap is a result of a succession of cold fronts crossing southeastern Australia.

“The transition from anticyclones influencing southeast Australia, to a succession of cold fronts, is a typical feature of the Australian region,” he said.

He also said that early snowfalls, which we are experiencing this year, are not unusual.

“While further cold snaps are possible, the winter climate outlook suggests that a succession of such events is less likely,” he added.

INDIAN SUMMER

The BOM released its latest winter climate outlook yesterday, warning that much of eastern and southern Australia is about to experience a warmer and drier than average winter.

Persistent high pressure systems are likely to keep skies blue — which translates into warmer days and cold, frosty nights.

Head of long-range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins says a powerful weather system appeared to be forming in the Indian Ocean at the same time as the El Nino-patterns in the Pacific faded. Known as a positive dipole, this Indian Ocean event could persist through to spring.

Its influence on surrounding weather patterns generally results in warmer, dry conditions over much of central and southern Australia.

“Having said that, it’s winter, it’s the southern wet season, it will rain — it’s just likely to rain less than normal,” he said.

Climate change predictions of higher than usual pressure systems lingering over southern and eastern Australia also appear to be being borne out.

“In addition to the natural drivers such as ENSO and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures,” the BOM study states.

GOING DRY

The unseasonal heat is being felt in the nation’s water storage reservoirs, which — in total — are at just 46.4 per cent of capacity.

New South Wales has the worst figures: its water reserves stand at just 24.9 per cent, the worst of all the states and territories. This is why water restrictions are set to go into effect.

Melbourne is also well down on previous years, at 49.6 per cent. And Adelaide’s dams are at 42.4 per cent — prompting the government there to examine the reopening of its largely mothballed desalination plant.

This may be particularly important as the controversial Murray-Darling system is at just 33 per cent capacity, down 18.3 per cent on the same time last year.

Nevertheless, wintry weather is on its way.

Another front is drifting up from the south, and is expected to cross southeastern Australia on Monday. It will be cold. It will be windy. But it’s not expected to be especially wet or snowy.

BREAK OUT THE BROLLIES

Saturday will see a slight improvement in temperatures, with showers predicted to ease across south east Australia as the pool of cold air moves east.

But the bureau forecasts a generally wet and chilly weekend.

Cool conditions will return from Sunday as another strong cold front moves across South Australia into Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania.

Sydney will experience partly cloudy skies over the next few days, with between a 60 and 70 per cent chance of rain and maximum temperatures of 18-19C.

Canberra is down to 1C overnight with a top of 15-16C.

Melbourne will be wet on Sunday, with up to 8mm of rain expected. Cloudy weather over both days will keep the maximum between 14C and 15C.

Brisbane is also set for a dousing Sunday, with a maximum of 22C.

Adelaide will see showers with a maximum temperature of 16C.

Hobart will see some rain Sunday with maxium temperatures of 12-14C.

The only warm places in the country are Darwin where it’s expected to hit a top of 31C this weekend, and Perth where there’s a maximum of 26C Saturday and 23C Sunday.

Originally published as Bureau of Meteorology predicts a warm, dry winter ahead despite Australians feeling the cold

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/technology/bureau-of-meteorology-predicts-a-warm-dry-winter-ahead/news-story/fa55ca0b9b8edfef499561b91f79382a