Winning is a mere formality: Just follow our experts’ Gold Coast late mail
ALL the form has been done, the conditions have been analysed and our expert, Brad Davidson, is confident of finding plenty of winners at the Gold Coast.
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ALL the form has been done, the conditions have been analysed and our Gold Coast expert, Brad Davidson, is confident of finding you plenty of winners for Saturday’s huge card of racing.
Davidson has meticulously dissected each race, eliminating all the hard work and with his local knowledge of the tricky Gold Coast circuit, has made winning so much easier.
GOLD COAST TRACK INFORMATION
Weather: Overcast.
Track Rating: Slow (7)
Rail: True Entire Course.
Rainfall:16mm in the last 24 hours; 43.5mm in the last 7 days.
Irrigation: Nil last 24 hours; 6mm in the last 7 days.
TH E FEATURE RACES
RACE 6: Prime Minister’s Cup (1300m)
Preview: This race is full of Queenslanders with CHOICE BRO, DANCES ON STARS and ROLLOUT THE CARPET the exceptions. Kiwi ROLLOUT THE CARPET is probably the best horse in the race but the query is whether the 1300m is too short for her? She is a classy mare though and must be respected. THAT’S THE ONE is an interesting runner and the former Victorian was a good second behind BENNY’S BUTTONS first-up in Queensland before flopping in the Weetwood Handicap at Toowoomba last start. But he had excuses at Toowoomba when he was found to have muscle soreness and he does like the sting out of the ground. He should settle midfield or worse and be strong late. BENNY’S BUTTONS rarely runs a bad race and if it becomes a bog, then he is unbeaten on heavy ground. The only knock on him is he seems to be a better 1200m horse. FILLYDELPHIA is a hard mare to catch but she will get the gun run and will give this a shake if she brings her a-game. DANCES ON STARS has been well supported in early markets but he might get a long way back from the wide barrier. STEEL ZIP is flying but probably wants a dead track at worse. FINAL CRESCENDO is the unknown quantity and he was super impressive when being held up for a run but still winning in weaker grade last time out. TYPHOON RED has a stunning winning strike rate but the wet track is a big query.
Comment: One of the most open races on the card.
TAB Money Train: Punters undecided in what appears to be a very open betting race. DANCES ON STARS ($4.50) is attracting smaller interest along with FILLYDELPHIA ($8).
Race map: FINAL CRESCENDO and TROMBONE ALLEY should push forward in a race where the pace should only be moderate.
Leader bias: BENNY’S BUTTONS will take up a trail and will be suited if they aren’t running on.
Run on bias: DANCES ON STARS will be weaving through gaps late.
Best chances: 10- THAT’S THE ONE looks the value in the race and if he is right he will go close.
2- BENNY’S BUTTONS never runs a bad race and will sit close in a race where there isn’t much speed.
12- ROLLOUT THE CARPET has the right form lines.
5- DANCES ON STARS just needs luck late in the straight to figure.
Knockout: 15- TROMBONE ALLEY just loves this track and could get a soft lead.
Suggested bet: THAT’S THE ONE each-way in a tricky race.
RACE 7: Hollindale Stakes (1800m)
Preview: It looks a weak running of the Hollindale Stakes this year but JUNOOB could well make it look okay if he keeps progressing through the ranks. He is probably more dominant on firm going but he grinded out a tough win on the heavy track in the Neville Sellwood last start. There has been a bit of early money for MR O’CEIRIN and he goes super second-up. He has drawn awkwardly but can go forward and put himself in the race. ANGEL OF MERCY is flying and may settle a length or two closer than normal from the inside draw, while MORIARTY is always thereabouts and has been running in better races of late. Gets the blinkers on here and could take some beating. STREAMA suggested she was looking for the 1800m when a fast-finishing fourth in the Queen Of The Turf but trainer Guy Walter is adamant she is better on a dry track. ELMANTOSH looks the best roughie in the race and his two runs in much weaker company this time out have been full of merit.
Comment: Hard to go past JUNOOB but can’t back him at the price.
TAB Money Train: JUNOOB ($2.50) is favourite to make it three straights wins. STREAMA ($3.50) is on the second line of betting with MORIARTY ($6.50 to $6) the best backed runner.
Race map: FAT AL should lead and MR O’CEIRIN won’t be far away. JUNOOB should take up a position as well.
Leader bias: MR O’CEIRIN could be tough to get past.
Run on bias: ANGEL OF MERCY reeled off some sensational sectionals from the back of the field over the mile last start and will be running home.
Best chances: 6- JUNOOB is still on the rise and Nash Rawiller rides him instead of Moriarty.
5- MR O’CEIRIN flies second-up and money suggests he will run well.
10- STREAMA has too much class to leave out.
11- ANGEL OF MERCY is producing the sectionals to win.
2- MORIARTY is the proven performer and the blinkers will help him.
Knockout: 3- MILITARY MOVE never settled into life in Hong Kong but seems to be on the improve since going back to New Zealand.
Suggested bets: MORIARTY for the win and a place bet on ELMANTOSH.
OTHER RACES
RACE 1: Benchmark 85 Handicap (1200m)
Preview: Tough race to kick off the day but it’s one of those programs. MONBAZILLAC is an interesting runner up from Sydney and his form should stack up against these. He finished just 2.2 lengths behind Knoydart in December and his form has been sound without winning. The concern is the wet track and he is untried on any track worse than dead. Best form has been on rock hard surfaces as well. COMMANDARE rarely runs a bad race and he gets his chance to win another race here with the sting out of the track. There is a bit of early money for him and that’s always a good sign. LUCKY SOUND trialled super recently and his form on wet tracks isn’t too bad. The time out of the trial was just OK though. THE WHITE HOPE is probably the best of the Queensland horses but the wet track is a worry and he failed at his only try on a heavy track.
Comment: Open race but COMMANDARE looks the value.
TAB Money Train: Punters have been focusing on the top of the market. MONBAZILLAC ($4.20 to $4) is a well supported favourite, but money also for SIR MOMENTS ($6 to $5).
Race map: Plenty of speed here with THEFIFTHHOLE, THE WHITE HOPE, MR FAVULOUS and LIGHTFEET LADY all pressing forward. COMMANDARE and NICKY NOCKY should settle just off the pace with SIR MOMENTS and MONBAZILLAC getting back in the field.
If leaders are suited: THEFIFTHHOLE could give some cheek in front and THE WHITE HOPE will give a strong kick.
Run on bias: SIR MOMENTS will be doing his best work late.
Best chances: 1- COMMANDARE seems to relish the wet and he never runs a bad race.
10- MONBAZILLAC just needs to handle the wet track and he has the right form to win this.
3- LUCKY SOUND trialled well and has always shown plenty of promise.
4- THE WHITE HOPE was disappointing last preparation but can win if he gets back to his best and handles the wet track.
Knockout: 11- NICKY NOCKY is drawn to get a super run and could surprise a few here.
Suggested bet: The double figure odds about COMMANDARE looks a good each-way bet and
he relishes the wet ground.
RACE 2: Class 6 Handicap (1400m)
Preview: JUST A PERLA has been in sensational form of late and it could well pay to forgive his last start where he missed the jump and couldn’t find the lead. Should get a soft enough run in front from barrier one and he loves the wet tracks. DOUGHTY is another one who loves the rain affected going and four of his five career wins have come on slow or heavy ground. EMERALD DUKE has been going horribly this campaign but I can’t get out of my head how awesome his win on a heavy track last time in was and he could improve sharply. ESCOFFIER is undefeated first-up and must be considered, while VOODOO BLUE MAGIC has been specked in betting and did catch the eye late last start.
Comment: JUST A PERLA could well be hard to catch but DOUGHTY and VOODOO BLUE MAGIC are worth including at odds.
TAB Money Train: Extremely open betting race with BUSHY and MORE LEVERAGE at the top of betting at $6.50. JUST A PERLA ($7.50 to $7) has a great record at the track and has been the best backed to win.
Race map: JUST A PERLA should lead and DOUGHTY might come across from his wide gate to sit outside the leader. VOODOO BLUE MAGIC and EMERALD DUKE will get back but will be doing their best work late.
Leader bias: JUST A PERLA and DOUGHTY should dominate if they can’t make up ground.
Run on bias: VOODOO BLUE MAGIC and EMERALD DUKE will be running on late.
Best chances: 2- JUST A PERLA thrives on wet tracks and has won two of his past three starts.
13- DOUGHTY is an underrated horse who is an absolute swimmer.
17- VOODOO BLUE MAGIC has been specked in early betting and does love wet tracks as well.
6- EMERALD DUKE has been racing horribly but his win at his only try on a wet track last year was one of the best I’ve seen for a while in Queensland.
Knockout: 17- VOODOO BLUE MAGIC comes from a stable with a very good strike rate and she really caught the eye last start.
Suggested bets: Happy to back both JUST A PERLA and DOUGHTY if the track is a slow (7) or worse. Box trifecta: 2, 6, 13, 17.
RACE 3: Ken Russell Memorial Classic (1200m)
Preview: SAGATONA has been well supported in early markets and the step out to 1200m will suit her here. She savaged the line first-up and the only query is the wet track and although she ran third at her only start on a slow track it was a weak race and she didn’t get through it that well. GRAPEVINE also got home really well first-up and unlike Sagatona she will make the most of her good barrier and should sit up close to the speed. Untried on wet tracks but most of these are in the same boat. AIMEE took all before last preparation and looks set to get a lovely run. This is her test though and this is harder than what she was racing against before. SARISARA will appreciate the extra distance, while RYAN’S ROGUE has been a good go at odds. HOLLYWOOD BARBIE trialled super and interesting to see Glen Colless is riding her instead of FREEZETHEMILLIONS.
Comment: SAGATONA and HOLLYWOOD BARBIE will be running on late but GRAPEVINE might just pinch it.
TAB Money Train: Good interest for the Liam Birchely-trained SAGATONA ($6) who is still a maiden after five starts. AIMEE ($3) has won her last three and is favourite to win again on her home track.
Race map: CHOC MOUNTAIN will set a decent pace with RYAN’S ROGUE, AIMEE and GRAPEVINE not too far way. SAGATONA, HOLLYWOOD BARBIE and SARISARA will be running on late.
Leader bias: Will suit GRAPEVINE and AIMEE and both will be there when the whips are cracking.
Run on bias: Expect SAGATONA to be sprouting wings down the outside late.
Best chances: 11- SAGATONA is a promising filly who will be finishing strongly.
10- GRAPEVINE is hard to knock in two runs to date and she has a bit of class about her.
8- AIMEE’S- wins last preparation were better than they looked and she can shape up here.
14- HOLLYWOOD BARBIE is the X-factor and her trial was super. Matthew Dunn thinks she is an A-grader.
Knockout: 5- LUCKY TOM finished second to Furbish last start and that horse would be one of the favourites in this.
Suggested bet: The value is probably gone with SAGATONA now but GRAPEVINE is still nice odds. GRAPEVINE each-way.
RACE 4: Gold Coast Bracelet (1800m)
Preview: There doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper but they always seem to hike along in this race and the backmarkers played a big part last year. ASADAUSKAITE is only coming off a maiden win but she fits the profile for this race and she is still on the way up. Ran a close second to Best Yet To Come two starts back and that horse won the Princess Stakes at Eagle Farm against most of these two starts back. LITTLE BIT DITSY has been waiting for a wet track and she gets her chance. She has been super and has been finishing off strong of late. PERFORMIA was the run of the race in the Princess Stakes and she will be making her presence felt late. PARIS MATCH has drawn the car park but she will push forward and will stick on strong. Kiwi CHOP CHOP has been well backed in early markets and the only concern is if she wants it a big longer. Trainer Shaun Ritchie gave a good push for her through the week and the weight of money for her speaks volumes. QUEST FOR PEACE ran through the line well over the mile and was unlucky not to win the Princess Stakes. She is not bred to get much further though and the inside barrier may not be an advantage if the track is wet.
Comment: ASADAUSKAITE fits the profile and LITTLE BIT DITSY and PERFORMIA look the best of the local chances.
TAB Money Train: New Zealand three-year-old filly, CHOP CHOP ($16 to $11) has been best backed to win.
Race map: QUEEN OF THE LOCHS should lead with PARIS MATCH coming to sit outside her. LITTLE BIT DITSY and ASADAUSKAITE should settle midfield while PERFORMIA and CHOP CHOP will drift back.
Leader bias: PARIS MATCH will be in front of most of the main fancies. QUEST FOR PEACE should also be handy.
Run on bias: LITTLE BIT DITSY, PERFORMIA and CHOP CHOP will be making their runs down the outside late.
Best chances: 13- ASADAUSKAITE is still on the up and she was very impressive albeit in maiden company last start.
4- LITTLE BIT DITSY has been waiting for a wet track and she has been unlucky not to win one of her last two.
10- PERFORMIA is the real X-factor. Her run in the Princess Stakes was very good when she was trapped three wide without cover and the jockey took off at the 600m. Can win.
8- CHOP CHOP has been the best backed runner early.
Knockout: 14-FAIRYTALE BELLE blew the start by five lengths in the Princess Stakes and was only beat 4.7 lengths. Far from the worst and she handles wet tracks.
Suggested bets: ASADAUSKAITE for the win and PERFORMIA each-way.
RACE 5: Silk Stocking (1200m)
Preview: Victorian filly SRIKANDI meets many of the older horses at equal weights here but this is not a strong edition of the Silk Stocking. In fact it looks an easier race than the Gold Coast Guineas which she could have also ran in. She has won three from four starts and beat consequent Saturday Caulfield winner Lucky Striker by two lengths at Mornington this preparation. Has won on heavy ground and will sit up on the speed and take some beating. Perth mare PLATINUM ROCKER is the class horse in the race but he got things his own way in front first-up last preparation. Has to give 5kg to the rest of the field here and she failed at her only start on a wet track. Some concerns there. The well bred LA PIETA has trialled only fairly but she has drawn to get a good run. LITTLE BROWN HORSE and JACQUETTA will both relish the wet ground.
Comment: SRIKANDI should be hard to get past but Jacquetta could cause a boilover.
TAB Money Train: Victorian galloper SRIKANDI ($5 to $4.20) dominates betting. Bets include: $700 at $5 and $500 at $5.
Race map: SRIKANDI and TUKIYO will both sit up on the pace with PLATINUM ROCKER set to push forward as well. LA PIETA and LITTLE BROWN HORSE will get good runs while JACQUETTA will be looking for cover three deep in a midfield position.
Leader bias: SRIKANDI will prove hard to run down.
Run on bias: JACQUETTA can flash home at good odds.
Best chances: 16- SRIKANDI is a winner and the money has come for her.
4- JACQUETTA is the best roughie in the race.
5- LA PIETA will get one of the best runs in the race.
Knockout: 10-BEACH BABE’S form is better than it looks and she will be running on late at odds.
Suggested bets: SRIKANDI for the win and a saver on JACQUETTA each-way.
RACE 8: Gold Coast Guineas (1200m)
Preview: Looks a good edition of the Gold Coast Guineas this year with a number of chances. ENQUARE has drawn horribly here but she has the tactical speed to take up a position and a wet track won’t worry her. She is unbeaten on soft ground and has been primed up for this with a 5 ½ length trial win last week. DOTHRAKI has come back a nice horse this campaign and Gerald Ryan’s stable is flying lately. He was nominated for the Victory Stakes last week which is always a good push that he is going well. Drawn well and will get every chance. New Zealander COSTA VIVA has great form in New Zealand and is already a Group 1 winner. The only doubt is whether the 1200m is too short? BLACKBOARD SPECIAL is the other main hope and he attacked the line well late last start.
Comment: ENQUARE and DOTHRAKI to fight this out.
TAB Money Train: ENQUARE ($7 to $5) is clearly the punters’ favourite with bets of $1500 and $1000 at $7. DOTHRAKI ($4.80) remains a slight favourite.
Race map: TOTAL AUTHORITY and NATURAL DANCER to set the pace with ENQUARE trying to slot in somewhere near the speed. DOTHRAKI will get the gun run.
Leader bias: ENQUARE and DOTHRAKI look set to strike.
Run on bias: PALMERA LAD will be running on at odds.
Best chances: 10- ENQUARE’S trial was very good and just needs a bit of luck from the wide gate.
2- DOTHRAKI is fit and should get the right run.
11- COSTA VIVA is the class horse in the race.
Knockout: PALMERA LAD surprised a few with a big win at his most recent start before a break and he can run a race fresh.
Suggested bets: Work around ENQUARE and DOTHRAKI.
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