All Aged Stakes 2016: Matt Stewart gives his take on Sydney’s final Group 1 of the season

ANALYSIS: HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart says Malaguerra has the necessary firepower to outgun his rivals in the $600,000 Group 1 All Aged Stakes.

HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart says Malaguerra has the necessary firepower to outgun his rivals in the $600,000 Group 1 All Aged Stakes.

$600,000 ALL AGED STAKES

RANDWICK, SATURDAY 3.45pm

GROUP 1, 1400m

1 KERMADEC 8 C Waller J McDonald 59kg $6.50

2 BLACK HEART BART 3 D Weir K McEvoy 59kg $6

3 REBEL DANE 1 G Portelli J Collett 59kg $17

4 MALAGUERRA 2 L & A Freedman B Shinn 59kg $4.40

5 GOLDSTREAM 5 K Lees B Avdulla 59kg $12

6 PRESS STATEMENT 6 C Waller H Bowman 56.5kg $3

7 ENGLISH 7 G Waterhouse S Clipperton 54.5kg $5

8 PERIGNON 4 G Ryan T Clark 54.5kg $31

Odds: TAB

THE FACTORS

Track: Soft 5

Rail: out 9m 1600m to winning post, 5m remainder.

Forecast: Partly cloudy, 26C

THE SPEED

Looks pretty clear-cut. Reckon they will find the urge to press forward irresistible with PRESS STATEMENT, a return to the dominant Caulfield Guineas methods. MALAGUERRA is likely to go forward with him and take a sit. Maybe ENGLISH and KERMADEC next.

Malaguerra, ridden by Ben Melham, wins on Melbourne Cup Day. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

THE SKINNY

MATT STEWART’S ANALYSIS

KERMADEC

Something went horribly wrong last start. Stewards report said “blood present in mouth, poor recovery.’’ Not sure what to make of all that. In absence of Winx, his best would have him right in the finish.

BLACK HEART BART

Tough, classy and versatile ex-Sandgroper. Only won by small margin but was never going to lose at Caulfield after near-miss first-up in the Newmarket. Definitely good enough.

REBEL DANE

Finds himself in no man’s land — too good for handicaps, where he’d get too much weight, and not quite good enough these days to win at WFA. He’s like the world’s 50th ranked golfer — chasing the minor money.

MALAGUERRA

Not yet won a Group 1 but has become bit of a cult horse because of that now famous spring formline, where almost everything that chased him home won shortly after. Huge win after trouble last start.

GOLDSTREAM

Resuming. Very curious runner, via a world tour. Obviously classy and form says hardly a grinder. Has been trialling well. Who knows?

PRESS STATEMENT

Should have won Randwick Guineas, when bottled up, then provided a reminder of the might of Winx by being flogged by her last start. But no Winx here and is a class colt.

ENGLISH

Classy work in progress. Excellent behind Pegasus in the T.J. Smith. Might expose a few chinks in some bigger names here.

PERIGNON

No case, outclassed.

MATT STEWART SELECTS

1st MALAGUERRA

2nd Black Heart Bart

3rd Press Statement

4th English

HISTORY

BEFORE 2004 run over 1600m

FIRST run in 1866 when won by Falcon

OUTSTANDING winners include: Tim Whiffler (1870-71), Carbine (1889-90), Wakeful (1902), Chatham (1934), Peter Pan (1935), Ajax (1938-39-40), Bernborough (1946), San Domenico (1952), Tulloch (1958), Lord (1959), Sky High (1961), Wenona Girl (1964), Tobin Bronze (1967), Emancipation (1984), Rough Habit (1992-93) and Sunline (2000, 2002)

TALKING POINTS

FOUR of the 11 winners since 2004 have come out of the TJ Smith Stakes. English (3rd in the TJ Smith), Fast `N’ Rocking (8th) and Rebel Dane (9th) are backing up from that race

THREE-year-olds have good record. Two will run on Saturday - English and Press Statement

GAI Waterhouse has won the race four times and saddles up English on Saturday

FORMER Italian galloper Goldstream will be having his first Australian start for trainer Kris Lees

KEY COMMENTS

“It’s been a bit of a disastrous preparation as far as barriers go, but I don’t think I’ve ever had him this far into a preparation looking so well” — Rebel Dane’s trainer Gary Portelli

“He’s just a great workman-type horse with a massive will to win. And a bloody good galloper as well” — trainer Darren Weir on Black Heart Bart

“He will be fresh for the All Aged and he races well that way” — Chris Waller on Press Statement

“We think he’ll be a Group 1 horse eventually and the All Aged will give us a good line on where he fits in the spring” — Australian Bloodstock’s Luke Murrell on Goldstream

Class colt Press Statement is sure to be in the mix on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

Originally published as All Aged Stakes 2016: Matt Stewart gives his take on Sydney’s final Group 1 of the season