Saturday Racebook: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis for Saturday’s Gold Coast The Wave meet
Get ready to ride The Wave as Nathan Exelby joins forces with the Ladbrokes team to find punters a winner or three on the Gold Coast.
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The Wave was in jeopardy due to the state’s COVID-19 lockdown, but Queensland Racing has found a way forward and the Gold Coast meet will go ahead Saturday.
Form analyst Nathan Exelby runs the rule over the big races, with a little help from the team at Ladbrokes.
GOLD COAST
Track: Good (4)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 26C
BEST BETS
Miss Hipstar, Race 2, $4
Animate, Race 4, $5.50
Paradee, Race 8, $4.40
VALUE
Acrobatic, Race 1, $16
Marsannay, Race 7, $13
Prometheus, Race 9, $6.50
ANALYSIS
RACE 4
Magic Millions Country Cup
1200m, Special Conditions, 2.12pm
Nathan says: Animate comes through a stronger race than this. Kris Lees also accepted for the Class 4 later in the day, but this looks an easier target and he’s booked Nash Rawiller for the ride. Think he’s well graded here with the likelihood of a lovely trail and should take plenty of benefit from the last start, which was his first in 70 days.Ramtastic goes particularly well at the Gold Coast and is better suited up to 1200m here after ticking over in a 900m race last time. Katy’s Daughter comes with strong speed figures from her latest win, but just have a query on her with other pressure in this race.
Ladbrokes take: Animate is $6.50 into $5.50. There’s some specking for Ramtastic ($9.50-$8.50). Katy’s Daughter is $3.90 out to $4.50 as a result and we can’t write a bet for her at the moment. Looks a nice race for Ramtastic. Nice hitout over 900m last time, which should prime him up for this and $8.50 looks a nice price.
The play: Animate looks a solid each way play.
RACE 5
Play Gold Coast Quality
900m, Qty Hcp, 2.52pm
Nathan says: The money for Tullio earlier in the week would likely have been based around the expectation of this track coming up genuinely Soft or worse. With the rain sidestepping the Coast for the main part, will be interesting if the market continues to warm to him. I was writing off the chances of stablemate Sugar Boom early in the week assuming genuine wet, but she comes back into contention now. Haunted is a super interesting runner. Has a nice touch of class in this field, but stable seemed cautious about his chances? Spurcraft, Howwonderfullifeis and I’ve Gotta Nel are other obvious hopes.
Ladbrokes take: A little lottery race. Tullio is $5 into $4.50 and is the one punters have zeroed in on so far. Stablemate Sugar Boom remains favourite but is $4 out to $4.20. Punters might be on the mark here. Tullio likes the track and distance and could be the improver in what looks a tricky race he might be the safe way to go.
The play: Track conditions all important. Finding it hard to get too keen about this one.
RACE 6
MM F&M Rising Stars
1300m, 3&4YO F&M Class 4, 3.32pm
Nathan says: Pull Anchor seemingly didn’t have form good enough to win a race like this, but Glen Boss jumped aboard at Doomben and she produced a career best. Sat back then unleashed monster closing sectional to get down subsequent winner Snow Valley. Another impressive winner to come out of the race was Smart ‘N’ Sexy, so there’s some nice form around her. Probably don’t want it too wet. Redoute’s Image has a poor strike rate, but she’s run very well in some top races and is well placed here. Stolen Jade is another to respect with rock solid NSW form and a sharp recent trial. Aviemore is up in grade, but she’s showing lots of promise.
Ladbrokes take: Redoute’s Image is a good mover, being $5.50 into $4.80. Stolen Jade is also popular and firming to $3.60 from $4.40, she’s the favourite. Another tricky race with different formlines to line up. Intrepidacious at $6 with Rawiller up looks a decent enough gamble with the solid Sydney formlines.
The play: Pull Anchor a chance at the $9 and Redoute’s Image also onside.
RACE 7
MM C&G Rising Stars
1300m, 3&4YO C&G Class 4, 4.12pm
Nathan says: Redoute’s Image comes up $4.80 in the previous, while Marsannay is being offered at $13 here after going straight past her last time. Sure, The Astrologist looks hard to beat, but Marsannay has plenty in his favour, being only 2L off a G1 class filly last time, proven in all types of going, versatile enough to go forward or back and suited out to this trip. Surely has to start shorter than what’s being offered at the moment. Just need Michael Cahill to produce a bit of magic from the draw. His stablemate Yao Dash is well placed here after finishing second to a subsequent stakes winner last time. Shooting For Gold rounds out the top four in what is easily his toughest test to date.
Ladbrokes take: Good move for The Astrologist ($3.30-$2.80) and also specking for one of the locals, Rich Devil, who is $12 into $9.50. We thought the Waterhouse/Bott runner Marsannay looked over the odds at $13 (in from $18). Went back from the bad alley at Gosford and worked home well.
The play: Marsannay at the odds.
RACE 8
The TAB Wave
1800m, 3&4YO WFA, 4.52pm
Nathan says: Melbourne raider Paradee is going to take some stopping. She was enormous when just missing in the G2 Matriarch in the spring before just missing against the boys off a fresh up over 1700m at Caulfield. She box seats here for Craig Williams and should get every possible chance. Chris Anderson looks the most likely to fend off Paradee. Ballistic Boy is superbly placed under these conditions and would meet Paradee 3kg worse in a handicap. He’s flying this prep and the 1800m is a nice enough stepping stone from the mile but the niggle is missing the run last week where he was ready for 2200m. Stablemate Profit has become costly, but can find excuses tempo wise and this race has always looked a good target.
Ladbrokes take: Indian Dreamer is $26 into $18 after charging home last week. Paradee is $4.60 into $4.40, but Ballistic Boy remains the solid $3.90 favourite. Wapiti at $16 doesn’t look a bad play. He has form around The Harrovian, gets to 1800m and likes the sting out with Stewart to ride.
The play: Paradee to upset the local hopes. Can include Ballistic and Profit with her in multis.
RACE 9
Aquis Dubious Handicap
1400m, BM85, 5.25pm
Nathan says: Prometheus charged late behind Soxagon and Emerald Kingdom and that’s benchmark summer carnival form. He drops back to a BM85 here and the big weight is offset a little by Adin Thompson’s claim. He loves this Coast circuit, has no issue with some sting out of the ground and will be finishing hard over the top of these. Roman Aureus was back in the groove last time in a deep Class 6 and should be ready now. Wary of big Awesome Pluck jumping out of the ground. Desleigh Forster has him going pretty well and he may well appreciate some room to move from that wide gate.
Ladbrokes take: Prometheus is $8.50 into $6.50. Splendoronthegrass is $4.40 into $4.20. Think the punters are on the mark with Prometheus. He hit the line well in a strong form race last time. Goes up in weight, but the claim negates it a bit and we think it will start shorter come race time.
The play: Hoping Prometheus is finishing two to their one.
LADBROKES SUMMARY
Best backed: The Astrologist, Race 7, $3.30-$2.80
Others: Swift Witness, Race 2, $5-$4.40, Shaquero, Race 3, $4.60-$3.80, Tullio, Race 5, $5-$4.50, Indian Dreamer, Race 8, $26-$18
Lay of the day: Finance Tycoon, Race 3, $2.70
Best bet: Marsannay, Race 7, $16
FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH
“The thing that impresses me is how laid back she is. She’s so relaxed. Nothing seems to bother her. It’s an awkward draw, but she’s got speed. If I press the button on her early, she will jump and clear them,” — Larry Cassidy, Miss Hipstar, Race 2.
“You certainly can’t condemn her off that run. She has done really well since and she has taken some steps forward and we are looking to qualify her for the Classic.” — Godolphin’s Vin Cox on Alice Through, Race 2
“It’s a bit of a trip away and some experience for Character. We have got an opinion of him, although I’m not saying he’s the next General Nediym.” — Cox on Character, Race 3
“It’s very exciting, but 900m is probably a touch short for him.” — Owner Jack Pakis, on Haunted, Race 5
“I know he looks well placed, but he’s probably looking for 2000m and beyond, so that’s a little question. But it’s a great result having this as a fall back having missed a run last week.” — Chris Anderson, Ballistic Boy, Race 8
“He just needs races to be run more genuinely. I think he’s been a victim of lack of tempo.” — Chris Anderson, Profit, Race 8
“She will bounce, she will roll, even if we’re in a three wide line, it’s not going to bother me. I want the track dryer rather than wetter. If we are on the better side of soft, she will have no excuses and is probably the pick of my four, depending on track conditions.” — Tony Gollan, Sugar Boom, Race 5
“He needs the rain to come. The wetter the better for him. If the track (misses) the storms, unlikely I would even run him.” — Tony Gollan, Tullio, Race 5
“He’s trained on nicely since his good Warwick second. We can’t have him going any better. We have trained him to peak third up. Tough race, but he’s got a good each way chance.” — Toby Edmonds, Unconditional, Race 4
“He was huge the other day. He’s going super, blinkers go back on to try and sharpen him that little bit. I’d love to see him a bit closer in the run. It’s a hard field, but deserves his place.” — Trent Edmonds, Indian Dreamer, Race 8
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