Saturday Racebook: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis for Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast

The bookies will be hoping they didn’t make a mistake with Vega One’s opening price but Courier Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby believes they should be feeling nervous. Check out his comprehensive Magic Millions Day preview.

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Nathan Exelby looks for the winners on Magic Millions Day with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

GOLD COAST

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Late shower, 30 degrees

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

Best Bet: Vega One, Race 8, $3.90

Value: A Man To Match, Race 3, $7.50; Every Rose, Race 7, $10; Into The Abyss, Race 5, $11

Multi: Box Quinella, Race 9, Chapter And Verse, Outback Barbie, Tokoriki Lad

LADBROKES ROUND-UP

Best Backed: Reckless Choice, Race 2, $6 ($3.60 after deductions) - $3.10

Others: Boomsara, Race 9, $7.50-$4.80; Vega One, Race 8, $7-$3.90; Jami Lady, Race 5, $26-$13

Lay of the day: Etana, Race 2 $2.90

Best Bet: Romani Girl, Race 5, $26

RACE 4: MM SPRINT (1200m), 2pm

Nathan Says: Champagne Cuddles rates on top but she’s won just the one from her past 16. Bjorn Baker has placed her beautifully in this race, as she invariably takes on much tougher. Recent trials have been good, including one over Madam Rouge. Scallopini may have just peaked on his run when second to Isaurian at Eagle Farm. With Tarzan running them along in front, he might get his chance to run over the top of these. Races best when there’s pressure up front. Kemalpasa has to carry the full penalty after the Group 2 win at Flemington, but that was probably a better field than this. Kept up to the mark with Gold Coast trial win on December 31.

Ladbrokes Say: Only 40 cents separates Champagne Cuddles ($4.40), Isaurian ($4.60) and Madam Rouge ($4.80) Isaurian has firmed from $5. There’s been a decent spec for Tarzan, who is into $10 after opening $13 on Wednesday. We find this a difficult race to assess and we’re hopeful of a result, because there looks to be plenty of chances running for us.

The Play: Giving Scallopini a chance to run over the top of them at $9.

Invincibella is chasing a third win in the Fillies and Mares race. Picture: AAP

RACE 5: MM FILLIES AND MARES (1300m), 2.35pm

Nathan Says: Invincibella ($5-$4.60) goes for three in a row, but is she going as well now? Spring form was down, but fresh run not dissimilar to her last two lead-ins. That said, looking for more value. Irithea looks like controlling the speed here. Super effort last time in Sydney when wide and battling on under a big weight. Has won a trial since, where she narrowly beat Into The Abyss, who I give a big hope here with Damian Lane riding for John Thompson. She proved comfortably up to stakes grade last season and won a couple when dropped back in grade last prep. Can make cases for others including Tahitian Dancer, Misteed and Yamazaki.

Ladbrokes Say: Jami Ladyhas been $26-$13 and Malahide has also been a good go at longer odds, $51-$20. The Michael Costa stable had a good day out last Saturday and his fans have lined up again here with Malahide. We give Romani Girl a knockout hope at the $26 with the Chris Waller/Brenton Avdulla combination.

The Play: Like Into The Abyss at the $11 and can save on Irithea at $5.

RACE 6: MM 3YO GUINEAS (1400m), 3.15pm

Nathan Says: Looks well set up for Alligator Blood to make it eight from nine. He has the speed to cross from this gate without Ryan Maloney having to use too much energy and that will ensure he’s got plenty to offer in the straight. As other trainers have stated, their best hope of an upset is bad luck. A mad tempo might be one such scenario, which could leave him vulnerable to a swooper. Which one that might be is hard to determine. Hightail is going great guns; Profit did well to finish second after striking trouble; King Of Hastings looks like relishing 1400m now.

Ladbrokes Say: The Alligator has been $1.80 into $1.75, but there might be a few hopes for us. They have backed a couple at bigger odds. Leviathan is $21 into $15 off the last start Randwick win and Exhilarates is $17 into $16 off her fifth in the Gosford Guineas. We think Alligator Blood looks very hard to beat, but we’re hoping there’s a few chances running for us.

The Play: Hopefully it’s a case of sit back, watch and enjoy. If forced to make a play, could stand out Alligator in a quinella from Hightail, Profit and King Of Hastings.

RACE 7: MM 2YO CLASSIC (1200m), 4pm

Nathan Says: The way the pace sets up, Every Rose should have the speed to either cross to the fence or sit outside Kavak or Farnan. In a race where you could make a case for eight and still miss the winner, think Every Rose looks the one certain to give a big sight. Clearly way underdone at Wyong, then showed a neat turn of foot at Eagle Farm before getting leg weary late. Mark Newnham has been clear in his mission to have her peak on this day and suspect she won’t be as soft at the end this time. Aim has obviously been spectacular in his two wins and the stable are masters at getting it right on the big day. Think Gotta Kiss is there to run very well based on her speed figures.

Ladbrokes Say: Aim has been $6 to $5.50 and very popular with punters since the draw. King’s Legacy has been $7.50 into $7 so the punters are rallying around the Grand Final team of Team Snowden. Away Game $26 into $19. Farnan looked the right one but the synthetic hoof filler is a query.

The Play: Happy to play Every Rose each way at the $11/$3.50

The early punters have crunched Vega One. Picture: AAP

RACE 8: MM CUP (1400m), 4.45pm

Nathan Says: Speed drawn out wide. Vega One needs to get cover and can see him getting it here. Has the speed to get going early and then Michael Rodd can hopefully take a sit when Deep Image and possibly Echo Jet come across. Deep Image has been super this preparation, but comfortable in thinking Vega One has the class to sit off him and get him down. Won The Gateway just as impressively as Care To Think won his lead-up before knocking over this same race a couple of years back. Crack Me Up’s fresh run has been well documented and he’s a chance on that. Think Over Exposure could be the one to add value to multiples. Getting fitter with each run and gets beautiful trail here.

Ladbrokes Say: Vega One has been $7 into $3.90. The $7 didn’t last long. Phobetor $17 into $12 off the win last week, and good specking for Echo Jet, $51 into $26 off the big last start Canterbury win. We really hope we’re not regretting the $7 Vega, but he looks hard to beat.

The Play: Vega One to do it again.

RACE 9: MM QTIS OPEN (1300m), 5.20pm

Nathan Says: Looks a hot tempo with I’m A Rippa, The Odyssey and Boomtown Lass all drawn out and needing to roll forward. Boomsara will also be right there. That leaves Outback Barbie and Chapter And Verse smoking the pipe back in the field, ready to let go in the straight. The George Moore showed there’s not a lot between them. Like Chapter on the 28 day break, as he’s electric when fresh. Desleigh Forster has been able to give him the perfect preparation this year. Barbie has been a thorn in the side of punters more often than not, but genuine excuses last time and she goes very well at this track. Think 1300m might be right in her sweet spot too.

Ladbrokes Say: Another good go here, with Boomsara $7.50 to $4.80. The other Munce runner Skate To Paris is $51 to $26, while River Racer has been $21 into $14. We think Boomsara’s last run is a total forgive because the first up run might have been a gutbuster and we’re with him.

The Play: Finding it hard to split Chapter And Verse and Outback Barbie.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

David Vandyke, Alligator Blood, Race 6: “The horse is in very good shape and he will be 100 per cent (today). He will probably jump from the middle of the field, he’s got pace, Ryan’s only got to sit there and it will unfold around him. He doesn’t have to do much on him the first 400m and he will find a position.”

Peter Snowden on his four Magic Millions runners: “I can’t really split them. I suppose Aim and King’s Legacy have similar form. They clashed at their first start and came out and won their second starts. Nitrous hasn’t run over 1200m, but … I have no issue with him at the distance. Stellar Pauline has come on amazingly well since her last start where she was first up at 1200m.”

Steph Thornton, Gotta Kiss, Race 7: “I’m rapt. That draw is exactly what I would have hoped for. She had her final gallop (Tuesday) morning and I was very pleased with her work.”

Stephanie Thornton rides Gotta Kiss in the 2YO Classic. Picture: AAP

Ciaron Maher, Away Game, Race 7: “She’s got a bit of a sense of timing about her I reckon. She has really done well. I just think she’s really going to run a race.” Rathlin, Race 7: “Rathlin is still learning but he’s improving with every start.”

Tony Gollan, Vega One, Race 8: “I think he gets across OK because he’s been jumping so well. He likes a little space between his runs and this has been his program all along. If he gets that cover early, I really think he’s going to be hard to beat.”

Tony Gollan, Outback Barbie, Race 9: “She’s since had a trial. That showed there’ no issue and I love her a month between runs. Her fresh record is very good. I think we will secure a beautiful run in the race we’re in.”